Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:00.732)
Boy, do we have a good one for you today. Welcome to the Move the Chains podcast. I am your host, Jason Jacoby, along with Salt to Salt and Pepper. We go by Salt and Pepper a little bit. Mark Boyer, Mark, how you doing today?
Mark Boyer (00:10.006)
Salt and pepper. I’m doing great. Super excited to have our guest, Adam Johnson, here with us. And it’s going to be a good time together. Looking forward to it.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:21.864)
Absolutely, absolutely. So Adam Johnson is the founder and author of bullseyebrief.com, a weekly investment letter which explores American ingenuity through actionable stock picks. He also manages the American ingenuity portfolio at Kensington Investment Council. Previously, he anchored several daily programs at Bloomberg Television, interviewing CEOs, heads of state and prominent investors. During his three decade career on Wall Street.
which I can’t believe it’s been three decades, Adam, you look younger than me. So he has traded stocks, options, and oil for ING Asset Management, Louis Stryfus, and Merrill Lynch. He graduated from Princeton with a degree in economics, and he resides in the beautiful New York City and enjoys cooking, skiing, and shooting, which I wanna talk about a little bit later. Love a lot of those things there. But a brief backstory into Bull’s Eye Brief before we kind of get into Adam and his story and how he’s moved the chains.
Adam (00:53.026)
Thank you.
Mark Boyer (01:09.4)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:19.632)
So Bull’s Eye Brief, again, explores and invests in American ingenuity. I want to bring that home a little bit more. So, you know, greatest country in the world, a lot of ingenuity and companies going on. So he manages a portfolio of 35 to 40 publicly traded US equities with a significant runway for growth. These are dynamic US companies propelling the world forward across multiple industries. So excited to dive into that. And some of these sectors of focus include energy,
healthcare, industrials, and technology. New positions enter the fund based on individual merit and each shares three defining attributes. Great story, compelling data, and identifiable catalysts. Upside targets and downside alerts are determined in advance to manage risk reward. And since launching in 2016, the portfolio has significantly outperformed the S&P. So well done, Adam. We’re excited to have you. Welcome Adam Johnson.
Mark Boyer (02:12.238)
There you go.
Adam (02:15.673)
All right. Jason and Mark, thank you. Great to be here.
Mark Boyer (02:15.997)
Yeah!
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (02:16.929)
Hehehe
Mark Boyer (02:20.627)
Glad you’re here.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (02:20.736)
Awesome. Well, thanks so much for joining us. Now, I want to kind of dive into your backstory a little bit. So you’re in New York City now, but why don’t you tell us a little bit about where you grew up and kind of your childhood and how you ended up at the wonderful school of Princeton.
Adam (02:37.417)
Yeah, boy, what a wonderful place that was. So I was born in Chicago. My folks actually from Iowa, they were the first ones to ever leave the farm. And eventually, dad got transferred to New York. So I grew up in Connecticut, was lucky enough to go down to Princeton. And the amazing thing about going to a place like Princeton is you end up meeting professors and people who change your life. And my econ 101 prof is a guy named Alan Blinder.
that sounds familiar. He’s the former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. And one day after class, I went up to him and I asked him question. And he said, remind me your name again. And I said, well, sir, it’s Adam Johnson. He said, um, Adam, what’s your major? I said, well, sir, I’m a pre-med. So it’s probably going to be molecular biology. And he said, I think that’s a bad idea. And I said, well, why? He goes, well, you’re the only one who comes up to me every day after class.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (03:29.759)
Ow.
Adam (03:37.009)
and ask questions. I think you like economics and you should be an economics major. And you know what? I mean, it’s funny because in that moment, it just totally changed. I said to him, well, you know, it’s interesting, professor. I said, the cool thing about economics is it gives you this language to understand how the world comes together and interacts. He goes, that’s what an economics major would say. So with that, I literally changed my mind, never looked back.
And as an economics major, it was pretty logical to go to Wall Street and found myself trading oil, eventually trading stocks and options. And then going on as a guest on CNBC and Fox in Bloomberg, and eventually Bloomberg in about 2008, after I’ve been trading for 20 years, said, would you ever join us as a full-time TV person? Because the world’s imploding again, 2008, 2009. It’s crazy.
And they needed people who could speak from experience. They didn’t want journalists. They wanted people, you know, who were actually in the, in the trading, et cetera. And so I spent five years in front of a camera. I loved it, but I missed being in the business. So I launched Bullseye Brief and out of Bullseye Brief, which is my investment letter has come the money management business and the Bullseye American Ingenuity Fund. So it’s been a long, wonderful and circuitous
ride as life always is. And I feel privileged to be here and talk with you guys and effectively running two businesses.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (05:12.488)
That’s amazing. So you said you went in as pre-med. So what was the thought process behind that? I mean, that’s a seismic shift, but did you have a passion for that going in? You loved health and fitness or health?
Adam (05:24.085)
Yeah. Well, you know, it’s funny how things work. When you find you’re good at something, you tend to do it. And you enjoy it because you’re good at it. And I had an aptitude for science as a kid. And I got straight A pluses in every science class I ever took until I got to Princeton. And they were a little awkward. But yeah, I loved it. And it just seemed so obvious to me. And
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (05:43.856)
Hahaha.
Mark Boyer (05:44.031)
Ha ha ha!
Adam (05:50.929)
As a kid, I would volunteer at the local hospital and I talked to nurses and doctors and I don’t know, it just felt right. And it felt right until my eyes were opened by a great professor who realized that, you know, there’s not just one version of right. And so I think for me, economics and now markets and running money and being in that flow, that is for me, I think more right.
than being a doctor would have been. I think I’d have been a great doctor. I wanted to be a surgeon. I’m precise. I like using my hands. I mean, like we said, I like to cook, I like to paint, but I think I am probably better off being a portfolio manager than I am being a doctor, even though I think I would have enjoyed that.
Mark Boyer (06:36.674)
So how long did that take? So I mean, you made it sound like you made that decision pretty quickly, but was that hard? I mean, was that what it was? It was super easy. You just were, next day you were going to economics.
Adam (06:47.529)
Yeah, well, you know, when something feels right, you know yourself, you know, when you know who you are and you’re comfortable in your own skin, I think it’s easy to make decisions or easier. And the way he said it, it just seems so logical. And I thought, how could I go against that kind of logic? I mean, I literally, as I walked down the stairs of Macosh 103, the big lecture hall at Princeton, it was just crystal clear. And I came into, I mean, literally, and you know, I didn’t go into that
that economics class that day thinking, well, my life’s about to change, but you know, sometimes that’s the way life works.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (07:25.368)
It’s kind of interesting. So you, so you doctor, right? Helping people more, maybe more physically and internally where now you’re helping people in a different way. So you’re still helping people. Right. Through, through actionable insights and, uh, and you’re helping people make money, you know, learn, educate themselves about economics, how the world works, how it’s all kind of comes together. So that’s pretty, pretty fascinating. Pretty cool.
Adam (07:47.957)
Yeah, I think so. And people have asked me before, what was it about economics? That comment you made, well, economics gives you this language for understanding how the world comes together. Here’s how I see it. And I had already formulated this at Princeton, but it didn’t gel until that comment from the professor, Alan Blinder. So there was a guy in Australia who raises sheep, and then he shears the sheep.
And that produces wool that another guy ships to a port, that another guy or gal puts into a ship and it’s sent to China. So still more people can turn that wool into yarn and then weave it into sweaters. And ultimately that sweater gets put in yet another ship and sent to a place like New York where it ends up in a store, we’ll call it Ralph Lauren, that is a publicly traded company ticker RL. And then there are investors who consider buying that stock.
There are analysts who help you come to that decision. Well, think about all the different social, human, professional interactions that converted the wool in Australia to the sweater on Madison Avenue. And all that stuff, all those millions of interactions over a long period of time, months, et cetera, get distilled into a single thing called a stock price.
that back in the day was traded on the New York Stock Exchange and of course now it’s traded online. And the distillation of all those processes to me is incredibly exciting. And the stock price is just the final distillation, that final point at the bottom of a very long and complicated triangle. And I wanted to be at that point. I wanted to be at the tip of that pyramid.
And so that’s what ultimately took me to Wall Street. And for me, that was more exciting than repairing people’s bodies. As wonderful as that is, and as essential as that is, it just, for me, the way I’m wired, I wanted to be at the tip of that.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (10:03.34)
So talk about your journey to New York City. So obviously it’s the epicenter, financial epicenter of the world in my opinion, but had you been there prior to like during your coursework at Princeton? So you kind of already knew, hey, when I’m done I’m gonna go there. Should there were internships maybe along the way? So how was that transition? Was it a culture shock a little bit or was it just smooth sailing?
Adam (10:11.354)
Yeah, great.
Adam (10:25.685)
No, no, and I’ll tell you why, because my dad was in advertising. And if you remember the show, Mad Men, right? Remember that show, right? Well, that was my dad. It was a little crazy. He actually died at 48, heart attack, because you know, the way those guys were portrayed in that show, I mean, that was kind of how my dad lived. And every Friday night, mom, this is back when I was seven, eight, nine years old, and my sister was two years younger than I am.
Mark Boyer (10:34.538)
No. Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (10:39.184)
Wow. I’m sorry.
Adam (10:54.345)
Mom would get us all dolled up. I had to put on a blue placer and a tie as a kid. And we’d go into my dad’s office, this is the seventies and we’d meet him. And then we’d all go out and do a family dinner, literally every Friday night. So, and you know, and mom and dad would sit at the table and have a few cocktails for a few hours. I mean, it was the seventies, right? He was a madman and an advertising guy. And so my point is that New York started to feel
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (11:14.66)
Yeah. Mm-hmm. Yeah.
Adam (11:22.593)
very comfortable at a very young age. And it never really occurred to me that I would do anything other than go to New York. I mean, I assumed I would do med school somewhere, but it never occurred to me that I would live ultimately anywhere other than New York. And so yeah, Princeton to New York was pretty obvious. I’m sitting in my New York apartment right now as we do the podcast, and I’ve been living on the Upper East Side ever since I graduated. So.
Maybe I’m a creature of habit, maybe I just know what I like, but it feels pretty good.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (11:57.48)
So on your walk-in talks in the morning that we see on LinkedIn, which I love by the way, so how long is the journey to the office walking wise?
Adam (12:06.837)
Well, right through Central Park. So it’s great. The office is 54th and 6th, and right in the heart of it, which I really love. All the big law firms, a lot of the money management. Newberger Berman is right there. Gosh, I’m trying to think across the street. Well, just name any large money manager, all the banks, Te General, Mizzouho Securities, Morgan Stanley, I mean, on and on and on. Sullivan and Cromwell.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (12:26.975)
Right.
Adam (12:36.137)
I mean, everybody’s right there. And so to be right there on 6th Avenue in the thick of it, I love that. I love getting up in the morning and putting on my, I took my tie off for a podcast, but I put on a tie every day and it’s like your armor, right? And I walk through the park and doing the walk and talk helps me get my head in the game. It also brings people to the bullseyebrief.com website.
And, you know, and they sign up, you know, for a 45 day trial and all of a sudden, you know, then it’s up to me to, you know, to win them over because I put a new stock pick out every week. It’s a ton of work. I do love it. And yeah, just I love being in the game.
Mark Boyer (13:23.862)
Yeah, it’s really good. Those are good. I enjoyed watching those. And then you’re talking about New York, you know, having lived the way you grew up, you mentioned your dad and so forth. And just from the other side, when I was talking to you earlier about how, you know, my wife and I played for the Jets, I went and played for the Jets for a few years, the early 90s. And being from being from SoCal, which is where we live here, it was an incredible culture shock to go into New York. You know, just the people were
Adam (13:43.457)
Really cool.
Mark Boyer (13:53.886)
Uh, you know, they’re just direct to the point, you know, Hey, this is how it is. You know, what kind of sandwich you want? You know, I mean, what do you want? What do you want? You know, you gotta be quick. You gotta be quick to go up, not like, Hey, move on. You know, this guy can’t make a decision. So it’s pretty intimidating from the outside, but, uh, so that would have to be a big advantage for you to have grown up and, you know, lived in the area, but boy, I sure love that place. Once you, once you get used to it, uh, it is an incredible place to live. I have no question about it. Yeah.
Adam (14:01.229)
you want.
Adam (14:21.021)
That’s so true, Mark. And whenever I go away on vacation, I don’t care where it is. A few years ago, I went to Vietnam right before COVID. It was amazing. It was such an eye-opening experience. Or skiing in Colorado, or I have clients in Dubai, so I’ll go visit them in Dubai. So some really neat places to go. But that morning, when I get up and I’m going home, I’m so excited.
You know, just, we’re going back to New York, you know? I mean, it’s the capital of the universe. I love it. Yeah, so it’s the best for me. Not for everybody. It’s right for me. That’s.
Mark Boyer (14:51.466)
That’s great. Yep, going back.
Mark Boyer (15:01.194)
Yeah, I love that. I learned to love it. It was really fun. And I missed that part. It was fun to go back. And last time I went back, actually Jason’s wife, oh, Jason, his wife is my third daughter. So she was born right when we were in New York. But anyway, back, you know, just those times where we’ve gone back and visited, I just tell them, look it, when they’re harsh, when they’re direct to you, just be direct back and they’ll be your best friends for the rest of your life. And that’s where, you know, we’ve had long-term relationships there because
Adam (15:18.485)
What’s up?
Adam (15:27.819)
Yeah.
Mark Boyer (15:31.187)
You just got to get in and be a part of it. It’s fun.
Adam (15:33.749)
Yeah, well said.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (15:35.664)
And I had no idea who Mark was. And my family’s from New York. So my dad’s side is from Brooklyn Bay Ridge area in Brooklyn. And my mom’s from Levittown on Long Island. So, and then my dad used to, uh, to run the Waldorf Astoria, the Carlisle and, uh, in Schrager hotels back in the nineties. And, uh, yeah. So I used to, I used to spend a lot of time. I think it was the St. Maritz condominiums, which was on sixth and central park south. I forget.
Adam (15:50.954)
Really?
Adam (15:54.838)
Boy, that’s.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (16:05.336)
Exactly. But I think it became the Ritz Carlton now. Yep. So yep, exactly. So very fond, a lot of family there still. So maybe next time we’ll have to we’ll have to meet up for a meal or something next time we come out. Our treat, of course. But but anyway, back to back to your story. So
Adam (16:09.217)
That’s cool. I walk by it every day. Yeah.
Mark Boyer (16:19.47)
I know what the fuck you’re putting.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (16:28.868)
1988 right was your first year kind of on Wall Street. You’re at Merrill Lynch as an analyst, correct? That’s that’s where you started there
Adam (16:36.265)
Yeah, mortgage backed securities. Yeah. My senior, my senior at Princeton was creating a more, um, creating a beta, uh, for, uh, you know, an index, right? For, uh, securities. And ironically, the conclusion of my own research was that risk and reward were out of sync and that mortgage backs didn’t really work, uh, over the long haul and how ironic that, uh, I ended up working
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (16:38.48)
Wow, wow, so was that?
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (16:49.03)
Mm-hmm.
Adam (17:03.881)
I didn’t even follow my own advice. I went to Merrill Lynch, joined their commercial mortgage back securities group. They laid me off in nine months because they couldn’t write enough works back securities. I got rehired by another group. Um, and you know, then mortgage back securities ended up blowing up, you know, the world in 2008. Uh, I mean, it’s so funny. That was my first job. Yeah. Was. And, and my, and, and my thesis, I guess was right. Uh, you know,
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (17:32.486)
Yeah.
Adam (17:33.313)
They didn’t work because you can’t model repayment risk. You know, when, uh, when rates go down and people refinance, they just, uh, you know, what you thought was cashflow from the bond, all these people paying their mortgages suddenly doesn’t exist because they prepay their mortgages since they’re going to refinance at lower rates. So, um, that, that was the, that was the thing about mortgages and mortgage backed securities.
Mark Boyer (17:33.314)
Yeah, it was.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (17:35.036)
Wow.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (17:57.596)
So in your time in New York City, I mean, that’s again, the epicenter. I mean, you dealt with, you know, 9-11, the dot-com bubble, 2008, and then even all the way up to COVID. So during your time, is there anything that you would tell yourself when you first got in that you’ve learned through those hard times? I mean, I can’t imagine. I mean, again, being the epicenter, the financial epicenter of the world and going through those times, is there anything that you learned specifically?
Adam (18:25.021)
Yeah, stick with it. You know, probably no different Mark from, from your, uh, sticking with it in, in football, right? You know, from little league to junior high to high school, to college, to pros, the sacrifice that I’m sure you had to make along the way to, um, to keep going to the next step. Uh, I mean, to playing the pros for, you know, as long as you did. Yeah. I can’t, can’t even imagine the sacrifices you made and stick with it. And, and, and I would say yes, uh, Jason.
sticking with it. And by the way, that includes sticking with New York. I am so sick and tired of over the years having heard people say, well, that’s it. It’s, you know, it’s, it’s all over for New York. No, it’s not all over for New York. That’s a capital. You know, people said that back in 9 11. Oh my gosh, you know, this is it. We’ll, we’ll never recover from this. And of course we did. They said that in Oh eight, you know, the housing crisis. Oh no, New York is toast. They said
Oh yeah, people will never come back. Oh yeah. Well, go to the restaurants now. And, and, and of course they’re saying it about commercial real estate. Oh, no one’s ever going to go back to an office. Please give me a break. Um, you know, it just, the naysayer and, you know, you, you see that in the stock market too, where, where people say, oh, this company’s awful in the short jump all over it. And then suddenly, you know, a quarter or two later, you know, it’s not so awful anymore. So, uh, I am an eternal optimist. I think that’s a healthy way to live your life.
Mark Boyer (19:36.405)
Yeah.
Adam (19:53.041)
I think it’s also a much more productive way to be a long-term growth investor, which is what I am. I mean, that’s, you know, an ingenuity, right? So yes, to answer your question in a long-winded way, stick with it.
Mark Boyer (19:59.726)
Amen.
Mark Boyer (20:07.85)
Perseverance, you’re right. Dead on, man. Perseverance, you have to have that to really succeed in life. Sometimes it’s not easy and you got to dig down and go. But there are times though when, and I’d like to hear from you, like when you have to make some slight adjustments or things that change, maybe circumstances change or whatever. When or how do you navigate those, Adam, to where, yeah, you were thinking this, but maybe it’s changed. You know, when do you make that?
you know, that slight adjustment or, you know, to continue to move the chains. Any, any examples of that where you’ve had to do that?
Adam (20:44.445)
Yeah, I’ll give you some personal examples, but also to just frame it. I think the greatest change up any of us has ever seen, those of us who love to watch football and I’m an Alabama fan. I love Nick Saban, but right. I mean, several years ago when Nick Saban, uh, you know, basically benched Jalen hurts at halftime in the, in the national championship game to bring into it to go below a, I mean, wow. But, uh, guess what Jalen hurts was having a bad day. And so.
Mark Boyer (21:03.415)
That was amazing, right? Great example.
Adam (21:14.369)
They switch and he had just ironically won the national championship the year before. But Nick Saban had the vision and the guts to pull Jalen, bench him, put Tua to go below it, in who had a great second half and suddenly Alabama wins two years in a row. And then amazing, wow, loyalty. The next year Tua gets hurt and Jalen goes back in and does a great job and takes him to the national championship again. So, wow. But…
Mark Boyer (21:37.934)
Amazing. Yeah.
Adam (21:43.581)
In terms of my own having to change it up and make the hard decision. So the past two years have been very hard for anyone who owns stocks and or bonds. It’s been especially hard for growth investors like me. I’ve had some very, very strong years, significant double digits. As you know,
Mark Boyer (21:58.56)
and bonds.
Adam (22:12.981)
You know, you can’t talk about performance and you can’t cite specific numbers per FINRA specifications. So we’ll just leave it at that. But I’ve had some very good years. And then I, you know, over the past year, it was really hard and I was down a lot. And I would have been down even more had I not pivoted in the middle of the year. And that was really hard to do. And I think that’s what you’re getting at. So.
I had to sell at a loss, a big loss. Um, and you know, I, I put my own money where my mouth is, right? It’s not just client money. It’s my money too. So I had to sell it a loss. Um, some wonderful, wonderful little growthy stocks that nobody cared about because they weren’t making money yet. And so, you know, if you’re not making money and rates are going up, that’s a death knell, um, for two reasons, because.
You’re probably a money consuming company. You need to go out and do more financings, higher rates. That means your cost of capital went up. And more importantly, number two, uh, those future earnings that we’re all looking for have to get discounted back to the present at a higher rate when rates go up. And that means you’re willing to pay less for the stock today. So it was a double whammy. It was crushing, um, so many of these wonderful little stocks that again, nobody cared about. So I sold them. I sold them at a loss and eventually.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (23:20.197)
Right.
Adam (23:34.325)
What I did is I rotated higher up under the quality curve. And I started buying, well, you know, I already owned the big obvious ones, the Magnificent 7, the Microsofts, Google’s, Apple’s, but what I started doing was buying the sort of next group down, Salesforce.com, Palo Alto Software, other big bulky companies that I thought would rebound, you know, that may one day be the next Google’s and the next Facebook’s.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (23:45.276)
Mm-hmm.
Adam (24:03.721)
So that for me was a shift higher up on the quality curve. I also did something I’ve never done before, which was I added a handful of what I call normalization stocks that were all down. Bank America trading at eight tenths of book value. I don’t really think of Bank America as an American ingenuity play, but guess what? At eight times, or at eight tenths of book value and the way they run their loan books and manage risk.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (24:24.923)
Right.
Adam (24:33.769)
It’s actually an ingeniously run bank. So guess what? That’s going in there. And so I added some of these other names, Delta Airlines. You wouldn’t ordinarily think of Delta Airlines as an American ingenuity story. Well, Mark, Jason, actually, if you don’t know it, let me tell you why it is. They have figured out how to segment the cabin into 35 different price points.
It’s not just first class business class premium and economy. It’s do you want an aisle? Do you want a window? It’s do you want to reserve your seat now? Do you not? Do you want to carry another bag? How far out in advance do you want to go? Are you going to apply points or are you not going to apply points? It’s also the fact that 10% of the revenues come from cargo. The belly of the plane is very active for Delta Airlines. They service parts and service.
not only their own planes, but other airlines. So they have a third party maintenance business. And what I, two other things they do that I think is ingenious, they basically make a billion dollars every year from Amex by just selling surplus seats so that Amex can give those seats as rewards to Amex customers. And then the other thing that Delta does is they own a refinery in Philadelphia. Hate to say that, Philadelphia Eagles.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (25:29.209)
Hmm
Mark Boyer (25:45.259)
I hope.
Adam (25:54.261)
jets. But, but right outside really actually very near the stadium, they own this refinery and that’s their hedge for jet fuel. So guess what Delta Airlines and in genius company that there’s so much that they do that defines American ingenuity. Guess what Delta Airlines is in the American ingenuity portfolio. So I, you know, I had to pivot higher on the quality curve. And I also introduced some less risky little
Mark Boyer (25:56.48)
Okay, that’s all right.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (26:15.22)
Thank you.
Adam (26:23.965)
more predictable cashflow type companies. And that was certainly something that really changed the way I think about the portfolio in the past year as a result of rising rates. Because I will tell you right off the bat, I didn’t think that rates would ever have the impact on all assets, stocks, bonds, everything else. I never thought that rising rates would have such an impact,
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (26:47.719)
Yeah.
Adam (26:53.941)
They did. And, you know, I mean, last year, right, first time in what was it, 55 years or something that stocks and bonds went down together, right? To that extent, you know, so anyway, we, we.
Mark Boyer (26:55.266)
did.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (27:01.894)
Yeah.
Mark Boyer (27:05.058)
Just destroyed the 60-40 idea or 70-30. It’s just the balanced portfolio got wiped out last year. It was crazy. But thanks for that. The reason I ask, I mean, that question is, perseverance is so important, right? I mean, it’s important for us to hang in there, but there are times then where you have to pivot. And I love that word pivot. And you gotta change maybe your direction just based on circumstances or whatever is going on.
And the other thing I would guess is that you’re not making those decisions just on your own. I’m sure you have a team of people that you get, you get, you know, wisdom from other counselors, people that work with you that you guys have kind of decided, correct? Is that right? As you make those decisions? Yeah. So important for, you know, just talking about our guests, you know, sometimes, you know, make sure you get counsel and think through people that are maybe even, I don’t know if anybody’s smarter than you, Adam, but, you know, maybe there’s some people around you that are pretty smart, too,
You glean some insight to from and making and making those pivots, you know, I mean, so sometimes that’s important I guess that’s the that’s the point there. Yeah
Adam (28:04.105)
Yeah. I tell you, one plus one equals three, right? Um, Oh, you, you put two smart people in a room together and chances are they’re going to come up with something that neither one of them would have come up with on his or her own. Uh, and that’s the, yeah, the notion of teamwork and one plus one equals three. I’m fortunate enough to have a couple of partners in California where you guys are. Um, long beach area. Yep.
Mark Boyer (28:30.315)
Really? Wow.
Long Beach, not far.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (28:34.256)
hour from us 45 minutes from us yeah
Adam (28:34.257)
Yeah. Okay. And so just being able to talk to those guys, or even when, when new clients potentially, you know, want to come in to just Have have the depth and the expertise simple thing like, you know, someone else answering the phone and saying, well,
I’m sure Adam would love to speak with you. Are you available tomorrow at 10? He’s in meetings right now, right? You know, cause I can’t do everything, you know, uh, something as simple as that, or, um, all the paperwork of setting up new accounts or talking to my partners and saying, Hey, I’m, you know, thinking about adding, uh, XYZ to the portfolio. Am I crazy? Right. You know, I mean, all that stuff, uh, one plus one equals three. Yeah, no doubt.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (29:27.304)
I definitely think, especially for us again, pivoting this last, this last year and a half or so again, with the rates increasing at the rate that they did and seeing the bond market and how that reacted and having to explain that to clients. Like, you know, I mean, I know a lot of people that, and maybe not more than our clients, but specifically that you hear about that weren’t able to retire because they maybe didn’t pivot before or again, like the 60 40 portfolio went out the window.
But again, I think it’s something that Mark and I have talked a lot about. So we, we love, again, we love growth companies. It again, depends on the client, the goals, income needs, all that. But I think for us, we love the, the dividend growth sector as well, which saw a lot of those, those big tech companies can start slotting into Microsoft, even Apple started to pay a dividend, um, but bank of America, uh, Home Depot, whoever it may be. Um,
There’s been some opportunities for us, again, having to make the hard choices. Like maybe there’s some growth companies that we loved prior to. And then when rates rose like they did, maybe we had to pivot a little bit. And then having to explain that to clients is not always easy, but again, life’s not easy. I think that’s something that we’ve had to talk about here.
Adam (30:43.209)
Yeah, oh, absolutely.
Mark Boyer (30:44.59)
I think that’s part of the perseverance too, because it’s perseverance, you know, you hang in there, but even you hang in there with making little adjustments along the way that helps you to continue to hang in there, but you’ve got to be smart at times, right? To adjust the game plan or whatever to keep moving forward. So I love hearing that about Adam, because that’s exactly what he’s talking about, what they have to do at that time. Really, yeah.
Adam (31:02.774)
You do.
Adam (31:07.997)
Well, and so I’ll give you another way that I try to kind of bracket risk and, and stay focused. Um, one of my mentors of many years made a comment, uh, way back when he said, uh, you’re only rational once and it’s before you buy the stock because right. Once you own the stock, you fall in love. Um, right. And you make excuses for it. Ah, well, you know, it was only one quarter and, you know, no, maybe.
Mark Boyer (31:27.717)
Hehehehe
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (31:37.404)
Hehehehe
Mark Boyer (31:37.71)
I’m sorry.
Adam (31:40.502)
So he said, set a price target before you buy the stock. You know, what do you expect will happen? What do you think will happen? Where could it go? And also set a target on the downside, which inevitably for me is, you know, somewhere around down 30, 35%. I mean, you know, if I buy a sock at a hundred and it drops to 65, I got to say, this is not working. I’m down 35%. Is.
Is there something wrong with the company? Is there something wrong with the market, the sector? Is something changed or is this just volatility? And, and so, you know, at that downward alert, I’ll either cut it or I’ll, uh, look good and hard and say, no, I think actually I’m going to hold it. I might, I might even buy just a tad more, but you know, having those downside alerts, it just, it forces you to be honest with yourself, number one. And then number two, having the upside target ensures that, um,
Mark Boyer (32:21.067)
Yeah.
Adam (32:32.437)
whenever one of my stocks hits its target, I always, and I mean always, sell half. It did what it was supposed to do. Now, I’m buying stocks where my goal is to typically double or triple the investment over a two, three, four year period. So if I buy a stock at 100, chances are I’ve run the numbers and I figured out why.
Mark Boyer (32:41.196)
Hmm.
Adam (33:01.497)
I think it can go to 275 or 300, right? So, you know, it’s a practically triple and it may take three years, fine. If it goes there, I will sell half and think about it. You say, oh my gosh, you’re selling your winner. Well, if I tripled my money on the stock, and by the way, if you have a portfolio of 35 stocks and they’re weighted two to 4% of capital at cost, you know, the 3% stock that you bought,
has tripled, it’s now in theory, 9%. Right. Um, and so you should be selling it because it’s now 9% of your portfolio. That’s too much. Um, so you should sell half, take it down to four and a half. It’s still more than you had when you bought it initially. So it’s not as you hate it. Um, but you take that money off the table and then you can go put it into something else, which is why I like to have the bullseye brief, uh, newsletter looking at a new pick every week so that there’s always this.
Mark Boyer (33:33.718)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (33:46.864)
Right?
Mark Boyer (33:48.812)
No.
Adam (33:59.809)
of potential names that I can put into the actual managed account portfolio.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (34:07.424)
Yeah. So I got to ask this question, Adam, because I know Mark and I dealt with this, especially during the post COVID rally, right? Where stocks just went screaming through the roof. As somebody like yourself who does the thoughtful, actionable research, bottom-up analysis of the companies, you’re looking at all different things that we talked about earlier, the different facets of how you pick a company. Did it ever bother you? It bothered me when
Adam (34:16.95)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (34:34.584)
you’d have everyone and their mother thinking they’re stock pickers back then. Because I mean, at that point, after that, you know, the March collapse or 35% or whatever it went down, you know, all of a sudden the market screamed back, you know, two, 300% if you’re in those big tech stocks, NASDAQ. Did you ever have that feeling where people be like, oh, like I made so much money on this. Oh, I’m such a good stock picker. I feel like everyone became stock pickers after that. So I actually really appreciate the tough times because everyone goes.
Well, you know what, maybe I actually didn’t know what I was talking about. So I need people like Adam. I need people like, you know, John the advisor down the street, whoever it is. Did you ever get that kind of feeling or?
Adam (35:13.769)
Well, I’m gonna say yes, but I resist the temptation to go there. You know, God bless. If you can coming out of a horrible, horrible down draft for the market and the economy, if you can actually have the guts to put money at work, whether you’re lucky or you’re smart and you make money, God bless, you know, I mean, God bless you. That’s wonderful, I’m thrilled that you made money.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (35:37.548)
Yeah, yeah.
Adam (35:42.313)
What I think people find over time is that it’s really hard to do. And yes, if you do the work and you’re smart and you’re disciplined and, you know, you’re a little bit lucky, um, you can’t outperform. I mean, I. I’ve outperformed. I’ve proven that. And, um, and again, it’s a lot of work. And that’s where I think, you know, uh, active management, where, you know, active managers like us actually, you know, we earn our keep because we can say it wasn’t just this.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (36:08.901)
Yes.
Adam (36:11.349)
one golden six month period where I did really well, but actually look at the past six years, seven years, eight years, whatever it’s been, and whatever your story is, it might be that you outperform. It might be that you equal perform, but you have significantly less volatility. Great, that’s a story to tell too. In my case, I’m volatile, but I do outperform.
typically significantly on the upside when I have the wind at my back. So, you know, I would never begrudge anyone for having done really well and even talked about it. It’s okay. Nothing wrong with patting yourself on the back and, you know, saying, yeah, I did well there. I mean, guys spike the ball when they score. You know, enjoy the moment, you know?
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (37:01.082)
Yep. I think Mark got ultra excited over there when you mentioned active management. We talk about that all the time. We’re really big on that. So yeah, absolutely. So let’s talk. Go ahead, Mark. Sorry.
Mark Boyer (37:06.61)
I love it. Yeah.
Mark Boyer (37:16.183)
I think that’s really important and you make some great points there. You know, I think back, Jason, you’re too young, but, you know, Adam and I both went through the late 90s and that the dot com thing, right? When everybody was a genius until they weren’t. Right. That was, that was unbelievable. So that was.
Adam (37:35.873)
Oh yeah. I’ll never forget, Mark, I was in a cab. I was going to this great little Italian place, doesn’t exist anymore, called Vico. It was on Madison between 90th and 91st. And so I’m in the cab, and of course, back then it was all cash, you know? Wasn’t like, you know, you, I mean, some, you know, credit cards, abs taking credit cards was a new thing. You know, it was a concept, now you do your phone. But yeah, it was cash.
Mark Boyer (37:54.11)
Yeah. You know what cash is, Jason?
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (37:57.488)
I don’t carry any.
Adam (38:03.701)
And you gave the guy a 20 look at you like, oh, you only have 20s. But I remember the guy said, you gotta buy some Yahoo. The cat is telling me, you gotta buy Yahoo. Oh really, oh great. I mean, that was no joke within three weeks of the top and then everything just got crushed. Yeah.
Mark Boyer (38:12.546)
You know what?
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (38:12.876)
Oh my.
Mark Boyer (38:18.627)
Hehehe
Mark Boyer (38:26.91)
I got a fun story with that one too. Same thing about three weeks before the crash, I went to my mom and dad’s house for dinner. My wife and I, she invited us over. So my mom’s at the time 75 and she doesn’t know, knows nothing about stocks. But she, you know, she, I was helping her with some of her small ira or whatever. And she says, Mark, a guy at church is saying that I need to be buying, you know, she named off a couple of names. I’m like, she’s never even known. She has no idea what those companies even do.
And anyway, I said, mom, you’re good. And anyway, long story, we walk out. I told my wife, I said, I think we’re at the top of the market. Cause even my mom’s talking about buying stocks. And you know, it’s like, it’s just a, that was just, and it was just like you said, your same guy, it was, it’s a, you can’t file, call it, can’t follow the crowd. It’s important to have active managers that are really researching these companies and know what they’re doing and live through the hard times too. It’s really, um, so that’s why it’s important to have good people around you that know what they’re doing and have some experience that you can get.
information from and other teammates that can kind of help you be successful. So important.
Adam (39:26.573)
That’s for sure.
Adam (39:33.225)
Yes, 100%.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (39:35.592)
So let’s talk American ingenuity, your forte here. So looking forward, let’s say 2020, since we’re in the 2020 era right now, decade, thoughts on kind of the big industries, industries that maybe you’re looking at. Again, I don’t wanna like give away your bull’s eye brief picks. Again, not what I’m trying to do, but just something that maybe you’re looking at kind of five, 10 years down the road, whether it be AI, chips, robotics, healthcare, would love your insight on that.
Adam (40:05.781)
Yeah, well, I’ll tell you right off the bat, one of the things that hasn’t worked and I’ve had to cut it, clean energy, it’s been a disaster. Just nothing from ChargePoint to Sanova to, I mean, just on and on. So interestingly, while clean energy is something that should fit the American ingenuity orientation brilliantly, right?
American ingenuity, the people, companies and technologies driving the world forward. That’s how I define it. But clean energy hasn’t worked. I’ll tell you what is working and this should not come as a surprise, logistics, right? As the world has pivoted to e-commerce, as companies have decided to go asset light and they contract out to third party service providers. If you’re Nike,
You don’t want to manage your own warehouse. You let people who manage warehouses, manage your warehouse. In fact, they handle all the shipping and everything and returns and everything else, subcontract. So logistics has become huge. Tied into logistics is automation because a lot of these new warehouses actually are, if not fully automated, partially automated. So that has been an exciting convergence.
and will continue to be a very important theme. And I could give you a number of stocks, but I can’t give it all away. So logistics, robotics, automation, computing power, artificial intelligence creates a significant need for more computing power. I mean, Nvidia’s chips are capable of 30 trillion calculations per second.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (41:35.749)
No.
Mark Boyer (41:36.933)
No, we don’t want it.
Adam (41:56.401)
And to run a powerful AI platform, you need multiple chips. They’re doing that many calculations. I mean, it’s really something else. And so, um, there are a number of different ways to, uh, play. I hate to say play. That sounds kind of, um, what’s the word cavalier? Um, I’m going to play, uh, computing power, but no, I’m going to invest in computing power. I’m going to express a view that we need more computing power in the portfolio.
Mark Boyer (41:57.358)
amazing.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (42:01.659)
Yeah.
Mark Boyer (42:04.91)
That was crazy.
Adam (42:25.897)
I want to leverage that theme, which is an important concept. The same mentor that I talked about who said, set a target before you buy the stock while you’re still rational. He used to ask a question, a single question for every person he interviewed. The question was, how do you make the most amount of money on Wall Street? And the answer that got you the job was find a theme and leverage it.
So that’s what we’re talking about. These themes that then allow me to go out and find a specific stock that will leverage that theme, that will express that view, whether it’s Nvidia in artificial intelligence. I’m giving you a few names now, whether it’s Symbotic, ticker S-Y-M, in automated warehouses. In fact, Symbotic has a contract to automate all of Walmart’s 47 distribution facilities around the country.
and what they do, robots would blow your mind. A truck pulls in, a robot goes in and pulls the pallets off. A robot takes all the shrink wrap off. A robot breaks apart the pallets. A robot puts all these things onto the shelf. A robot retrieves them. A robot puts together the new pallet. A robot balances it. These are all different robots. I mean, it’s mind boggling.
Mark Boyer (43:49.762)
Man.
Adam (43:50.169)
And I’ve been to some of these warehouses. It’s beautiful. It’s ballet. It’s robotic ballet. And that’s a big business. Their backlog, by the way, they’re going to do a billion in sales this year, and their backlog is 11 billion. So they have 11 years worth of sales already, the backlog, which is why they are ramping up and creating basically three different simultaneous production lines so that they can service 11 years in three years, right? Because they’ll have
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (43:54.296)
Yeah. Wow.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (44:06.44)
Wow.
Adam (44:19.149)
three times a year. Anyway, companies like that. So if you believe that the intersection of e-commerce, third party asset light, business models make sense, and robotics and automation streamline productivity, then you would naturally want to find companies that bring all that together. And SymBotik is a great example of a company that does exactly that.
If you want to make the statement that artificial intelligence is something that’s propelling the world forward, you would certainly want to own NVIDIA among certainly many other chip related companies or even a company like Excellus ticker ACLS that embeds silicon wafers with ions. And that’s how you basically make chips.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (44:58.545)
Mm-hmm.
Adam (45:14.885)
And now there is significantly more need for the ability to embed silicon with ions because we need more chips and they have to be more dense. And there’s only one company that’s better at every other than every other company in the world of doing that. It’s called Excellus. Right. You know, there are ways to. Leverage these themes. And we do that as stock pickers by, you know, finding these uniquely.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (45:31.388)
Wow.
Adam (45:43.413)
position companies and then comparing to all their competitors and running the numbers and who does it best and maybe even talk to some of the customers and you know, that’s the work people talk about. Well, have you done the work on it? You know, yes, I’ve done the work, right? This is doing the work.
Mark Boyer (45:58.99)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (45:59.095)
Ah, yeah.
So do you think part of your, of your ingenuity story or the ingenuity story that you’re looking at is the de-globalization of supply chains? Do you see that kind of impacting innovation and growth as well? I mean, look, I believe, correct me if I’m wrong, but Mexico’s our biggest trade partner right now, right? So, maybe bringing factories back, whether it’s maybe not state side in the U S yet, or it’s Mexico, it’s Canada, whoever it may be. Obviously we had the USMCA deal that went through.
a few years ago during the Trump administration. But do you see that kind of playing a part? Because obviously for us, Taiwan Semi was one of my favorite companies a few years ago, right? World’s largest chip foundry, I believe. So obviously with Taiwan and then the China invading Taiwan piece, people get nervous. And then also just seeing how the supply chain worked during COVID and how it was kind of disrupted and broken. They opened factory in Arizona, but now they’re having trouble hiring.
qualified workers, so they’re having the Taiwanese come here to train Americans on how to do it. Do you see, again, this is a lot, but do you see that kind of playing into the ingenuity piece as well, kind of, and helping the ingenuity piece?
Adam (47:15.957)
Yeah, reshoring. Certainly that’s good for a company like Symbotic. It’s also good for a company like Prologis, the largest PLD is that ticker, the largest warehousing REIT in the world. They have the equivalent of, Mark, you’ll appreciate this, 57,000 football fields worth of warehousing space. That’s insane. 57,000 football fields. Yeah.
Mark Boyer (47:38.242)
Wow. Oh my God, that is insane. Wow.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (47:42.013)
Peace.
Adam (47:45.665)
And so, and by the way, that stocks trading now like 18 times funds from operation FFO, which is like the earnings version for REITs. And that’s how you always look at REITs and has a good healthy yield that probably will get your attention. And other occupancy, by the way, is 98%. And all the lease renewals that they’re.
negotiating are up 8%. So for all the gloom and doom in commercial real estate, there’s a winning story. It’s down because the algos have hit anything that is real estate related, but yeah, that’s an interesting name. And one that Jason, I think gets at what you’re talking about, which is reshoring. We need more space. If we’re gonna reshore manufacturing, we need more warehousing space to store all this stuff before you actually manufacture it.
And all that’s being done in, you know, again, that plays into the third party logistics that, you know, I mentioned. So there’s a convergence. So, you know, you and I, this is what we’re talking about one plus one equals three, or in this case, one plus one plus one equals four, because they’re right. So, you know, you and I coming up with, with these ideas together, you know, that’s part of the process.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (48:44.977)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (48:52.765)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (49:01.742)
of that.
Mark Boyer (49:02.942)
Adam, we’ve got a lot more calls or talk, you know, people asking about gold. You know, I think, you know, commodities in general, things like that, you know, when there’s any kind of issues around geopolitical issues that happen, people always, you know, if you’re watching Fox News or whatever, you know, seeing you on TV, but the commercials are all the gold bugs jump, jump out and, you know, you buy gold by gold. You have some thoughts on that? Anything that you could share wisdom wise in the
Adam (49:26.156)
I know.
Mark Boyer (49:31.17)
the commodity space and gold in particular.
Adam (49:34.409)
Yeah, don’t waste your time. If the highest inflation in 50 years, if chaos on Capitol Hill, if the uncertainty of two presidential front runners who may not even get to election day, one for health, one for legal. Yeah, if two major wars, Russia, Ukraine, and Israel, Gaza,
Mark Boyer (49:54.257)
Yeah, either one of them.
Adam (50:04.261)
If all, oh, and by the way, an ongoing inability to create a budget in this country, if all of these things happening at the same time can’t push gold above $2,000 to a new high, why would you ever buy it?
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (50:12.418)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (50:25.904)
I love that.
Mark Boyer (50:27.246)
That’s great.
Adam (50:28.513)
Why would you ever buy it? Yeah.
Mark Boyer (50:30.178)
Yeah, makes no sense. I agree with you. So I wanted to hear from you, because that solidifies what we’ve been talking about, Jason, with some people within our clients. But anyway, that’s good. What about bond market? Adam, what do you think? What? No, don’t worry.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (50:44.12)
Oh yeah.
Adam (50:47.7)
Yeah, gold is, sorry to mark, gold is a bet on the end of the world. And guess what? That trade has never paid off.
Mark Boyer (50:57.314)
No.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (50:58.858)
Very true.
Adam (50:58.925)
Thanks.
Mark Boyer (51:01.262)
What do you think interest rates are headed from here? What are you thinking on that? We’ve had a little pullback this week, yeah. Lower? Yeah. You like fixed income? I mean, yeah.
Adam (51:05.281)
Lower. Yeah, lower. Yeah. I think we have conquered inflation. I’m not saying that it’s fully done, but I think we have conquered it. I mean, think about it. Producer prices, the PPI, producer price index, producer prices are now down to about two and a half. At the high, they were 11.7. So from 11.7 down to two and a half.
consumer prices CPI were as high as 9.1. They are now 3.7 and expected to fall to about 3.4 next Tuesday, the 14th, we get that next CPI report. So I think we have conquered inflation. It still is higher than we’d like. You know, CPI, we really want to be down around 2%. That’s sort of the Fed’s target. And we’re not there yet. But the Fed…
hiked rates by 550 basis points. And I think Jerome Powell has correctly said, it does take time for all those rate heights to percolate through the economy. So that’s why they’re sitting tight. But I do think we’ve conquered inflation. Interestingly, oil by the way, is back down to 75 bucks because the world is really well supplied, that helps. Food inflation has backed way off.
It’s still going up. I mean, you know, it’s disinflating because it’s going up, but at a lesser rate. You know, people understand, you know, the difference between disinflation and deflation. Deflation means prices actually fall. That very rarely happens. In fact, it usually only happens during recessions and depressions. So you actually don’t want prices to go down. You just want them to go up at a lesser rate, which is called disinflation.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (52:41.586)
Yeah.
Adam (53:01.641)
So that is what’s happening now. And that’s good. Supply chains have normalized. Now two things need to happen. We need to stop seeing people get raises because that’s inflationary by definition. Number one, well actually three things. People need to stop getting these crazy raises. I mean, a UPS truck driver makes 180 grand a year. Wow. We need to stop seeing that. We need to see home prices correct because housing is 30% of the CPI calculation.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (53:20.377)
Mm-hmm. Yeah.
Mark Boyer (53:21.207)
Wow.
Adam (53:29.889)
So as long as home prices stay high, that keeps rents high and home prices high. So we need to see that back off, even though you kind of hate to see your home worth less, we actually would be better served by it. And then critically, we need to see some sort of discipline out of Washington. They just keep spending money. It’s crazy. I mean, the Intel Foundry that’s gonna be built in Ohio is being built in part with a $3 billion grant from the federal government. Come on, it’s Intel. They can afford that.
billion, and yet the government’s going to give them a grant for three billion? Guess who’s paying for that grant? All of us. That’s why we have a deficit. So, uh, the federal government needs to stop spending money. Um, and by the way, both sides of the aisle are guilty. It used to be only Democrats were quote unquote, remember during Reagan, the school, those spending as tax and spend thems. Well, actually the Republicans are doing the same thing. Um, and that’s because every politician, whatever
Mark Boyer (54:05.398)
We are.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (54:05.624)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (54:23.848)
100%.
Adam (54:27.849)
you know, shade of, you know, red or blue, he or she has wants to get reelected. And the way to get reelected is just throw money at people. So, yeah. So, uh, we, we need to see all those things happen, um, for inflation to keep going down, but I do think we’ve conquered it and that means, uh, interest rates would go down by the way. And I know I’m rambling, but I will make this point. If you look at fed fund futures on, uh, the Bloomberg terminal, um, what you’ll find is that there’s only a 10% chance of another rate hike.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (54:35.697)
Yeah.
Adam (54:57.641)
And yet there is a 100% chance of two rate cuts by next June. So it’s not just me saying, oh, yeah, rates are going down. The market believes that rates are going down.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (55:04.334)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (55:12.272)
And last, I think last week you were talking about, again, just on the subject of interest rates, a lot of people are looking at the 10 year treasury rate. It was kind of hovering around 5%. Obviously we’ve had a 50 basis point drop from that point, but you brought up a really remarkable point, I think, just in terms of looking beyond that at the 30 years. So if you wouldn’t mind just kind of rehashing that, I know, again, the markets have had quite a rally over 5% last week. We had a 50 basis point, you know, yield correction kind of.
Thoughts on that? I thought that was a really interesting point you made on, I think it was LinkedIn that I saw, or Fox Business actually. Fox Business maybe it was.
Adam (55:48.769)
Oh, well, thank you. Admittedly, I cannot take credit for that. I was simply repeating what I had heard. This is why it’s important to have a pack of traders, investors, analysts, et cetera, whom you can talk to. Again, one plus one equals three. I’m a long-term investor, all right? But I talk to the very aggressive day traders in Chicago, the Chicago futures trading crowd, because they look at the world very differently. And I want that perspective.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (56:03.532)
Mm-hmm. Yep.
Adam (56:18.313)
And what they told me three weeks ago, the guys who, by the way, go back to the 1970s, they were the first rate traders in Chicago. These are the guys who created interest rate futures. So you want to listen to what these guys have to say. They’ve been doing it 50 years. And they said the 30 year needs to hold 515, five spot one five. I said, why? They said, that’s the contract high.
that goes back to 2007. So even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell had basically said two meetings ago, yeah, we’re gonna just sit tight. The futures market needed to probe and not take Chairman Powell at his word. So the futures market probed, it went higher, it went up to 515 three times over about two weeks and that was two weeks ago.
And the futures traders in Chicago said, that’s very good because the market has taken the 30 year to the contract high, the highest it’s ever traded at going back to 2007 and it held three times. And now the futures market can back off. It’s comfortable that it has pushed the edge. And, and, and it didn’t go past it. And so that was a signal.
Mark Boyer (57:43.092)
Hmm.
Adam (57:45.485)
to basically cover shorts in the bond market. And within two days, by the way, did you see that? I think it was Jeff Gundlach and Bill Ackman, and it might even have been Bill Gross, the bond king from PIMCO. Oh, I’m not sure about Bill. But my point is notable investors who basically said the same thing. And when you see notable investors of very different disciplines, Chicago Futures traders and big hedge fund guys and bond traders.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (58:11.889)
Mm-hmm.
Adam (58:12.745)
All saying the same thing, cover your shorts in the bonds. You need to pay attention and that allowed stocks to rally. We had a 5% rally in stocks last week. So that was the series of dots and I can’t take credit for having figured that out on my own, Jason. It was just conversations with a lot of people and that’s why you have that pack and why you have allies and why you pick up the phone and talk to them.
Mark Boyer (58:37.319)
Mm, good stuff.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (58:38.144)
I love that. All right, so got a few, a little, I’m gonna get kind of personal here in terms of some of your passions outside of trading, outside of economics. So you’re a Partagas fan, right? So talk to us a little bit. What’s that? You’re a Partagas fan, right? Yeah, Partagas. Yeah, from Cuba, right? So cigar guy. So.
Adam (58:57.138)
I’m a what? What? Artigas! Oh yeah, for sure! Artigas, here’s number Yeah, here’s D number
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (59:06.608)
Number four.
Adam (59:08.737)
Yeah, Partigas Series D number four. That is the best cigar ever. I used to buy them from Cuban Luz before COVID. I’d get a box of 25 for 225 bucks, which I think is reasonable, right? Seven, eight bucks a cigar, right? No tax, no shipping. Well, cubanluz.com no longer sells them at 225. I mean, they’re like, devil. It’s like 450, and I’ve seen them as high as, because the price moves. It’s a market like any other.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (59:20.612)
Yeah. Yep.
Mark Boyer (59:23.69)
Thanks.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (59:30.86)
Ha ha.
Adam (59:37.833)
You know, I’ve seen them over 500 bucks for a box. So I don’t do that anymore. Now I found a great place, Los Llanos Das Palmas out of Charleston. And they roll these great Churchill cigars. So they’re like seven inches, 50 ring gauge, really big, 50, you know, 64, seven inch. And yeah, 25 is like 150 bucks. So that I could have…
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (59:52.816)
Hmm my favorite. Yep
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:00:04.876)
OK, very reasonable.
Adam (01:00:07.977)
And so, yes, I have more of those than I should, but I’m a very good customer. Oh, no, that’s almost, yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:00:13.128)
Haha
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:00:17.296)
I love it. And then so favorite ski spot in Colorado or in the world.
Adam (01:00:24.481)
Oh, hands down, Aspen Highlands. You know, Aspen gets all the flash. If you take the bus 12 minutes down into the valley and then up the hill, you go one ridge line over and you’re at Aspen Highlands. It’s the best. I think it’s the best skiing in the country. And they also have the bowl. And so you take the snow, you take the highest lift up. And then you get in a in a snowcat that takes you another mile.
up the ridge line, you get out, you put your skis on your back and you hike in a straight line on a very narrow ridge. It’s a little freaky. Sometimes it freaks me out. I just look straight ahead. If you fall, you’re in a world of hurt. And you walk up the spine of the ridge and you get to, I think it’s about 14,000 feet, which is freaking high. And it’s the highest point in Colorado. Well, Arapahoe Basin.
Mark Boyer (01:01:05.185)
Oh my goodness.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:01:16.474)
Yeah.
Adam (01:01:23.073)
uh, a basin is maybe nominally higher, but, um, but it’s just this one little place where you go at a basin for that height. Uh, when you’re on the top of that, that Aspen Highlands bowl, I mean, you are just looking out at the world. It’s, uh, it’s really exciting. And by the way, um, even if you’re a fast skier, it’ll take you 40 minutes to get down to the lift at the bottom of that bowl. It’s just so vast. And, and I mean,
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:01:47.336)
That’s the best.
Adam (01:01:53.397)
You look at the far side of the bowl all around the edge and the people are like that because it’s so vast. They’re like little ants, you know? I mean, and they’re all just going down like that, you know, finding their own lines down. And it’s, I just love it.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:01:58.076)
Hehehe
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:02:08.164)
Yep. Have you done Telluride yet?
Adam (01:02:13.357)
Uh, yes. Uh, which I think got its name. I was told when I was out there because they used to say to hell you ride. Tell you right. Yeah. Right.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:02:20.2)
That’s true. Yeah, very true. Very true. I used to live up there. So that’s obviously close to my heart. I love it. And it’s been a lot of times up there in the back bowl and it’s fun. So I haven’t done Aspen yet. I still want to do Aspen at some point, but I have to take your word for it.
Mark Boyer (01:02:21.931)
Yeah.
Adam (01:02:27.707)
Oh yeah.
Oh great.
Adam (01:02:35.913)
It’s, yeah, Aspen, Aspen is awesome. I mean, I know it’s flash, flashy and you know, Hollywood celebs and all that, but yeah, get over to Aspen Highlands and you’ll, you’ll just have a magical experience. By the way, the best restaurant is a ski restaurant of anywhere in the world is at Aspen Highlands. It’s called Cloud Nine. And, and so it’s, it’s a party. They have two seatings.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:02:58.767)
Okay.
Mark Boyer (01:02:59.63)
That’s correct.
Adam (01:03:04.529)
And you want to get up early that morning and ski hard because when you walk in there for the one o’clock seating, you’re done. You are going to party and you are going to party hard. Uh, cloud nine at Aspen Highlands. And yes. Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:03:10.376)
You’re not going back.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:03:14.824)
I’m going to go to bed.
Okay. All right. And then last thing that Mark has any questions, but talk to us a little bit about your other passion, you used to painting, right? Painting and shooting. So have you always been a painter? You painted those. No way. Wow. Those are beautiful.
Mark Boyer (01:03:18.901)
Okay.
Adam (01:03:30.961)
One of my, all of them. Yeah.
Adam (01:03:36.881)
Oh, thanks. Yeah, I love to paint. When I was a kid, you know, I mentioned my madman dad who was a very creative guy. His hobby was woodworking. He turned the basement of our house in Connecticut into a wood shop. So I grew up in his wood shop and I kind of fooled around with wood a little bit, but I just strangely naturally, I don’t know how, I just gravitated towards painting. And so when I was a kid, you know, my parents didn’t…
buy us toys, they would just say, well, go down to your father’s shop. And, you know, mom would say, go down to your father’s shop and get some wood and some string and glue and go make something. And ditto for my sister. And, cause mom liked to sew. So my sister learned to do that stuff. And, and mom was also a great, great cook. But I just naturally gravitated towards the painting. And so I’ve literally been painting since I was a kid. And,
Yeah, we didn’t have normal toys. We just, we made our own toys or we got creative.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:04:40.648)
Well, you’re a magnificent painter. I mean, I can see him behind. That’s incredible. Do you sell those things?
Mark Boyer (01:04:43.21)
Yeah, that’s amazing.
Adam (01:04:46.309)
I used to, yeah. Now I just sort of keep them for myself. But yeah, I really enjoy it. And it’s very therapeutic. And a good counterbalance for the headiness of running money and the pressure of running money and trying to pick stocks and run spreadsheets and all that. I think it’s important for me anyway to have a creative outlet. And for me, that’s cooking and painting.
Mark Boyer (01:05:16.47)
Alright, so I like to eat. What do you like to cook? What’s your favorite dish? What’s your best dish?
Adam (01:05:24.477)
Short ribs, braised short ribs, single best dish. Yeah, it’s real, you want me to know how, you want to know how to do it? I’ll tell you, it’s really easy. Go buy the ribs, you know, the big ribs, you know, it’s got the meat wrapped around the rib, short ribs. You’re going to basically put them in a Dutch oven, you know, which is the big heavy round oven with a heavy top, creates the pressure. Put them in there with some olive oil.
Mark Boyer (01:05:26.079)
Mmm.
Mark Boyer (01:05:31.766)
Yeah, yeah, real quick, yeah.
Mark Boyer (01:05:50.613)
Mm-hmm.
Adam (01:05:54.517)
Get the sides real dark, real quick. Take them out, then put onions, carrots, and celery in there. You’re gonna cook that down. Eventually, you’re going to add some tomato paste and some garlic. Stir that up. Then add some flour that will thicken it up. To that, you’re then going to add a bottle of red wine and some chicken stock. And now all of a sudden it’s real soupy. And you say, what happened? It was so pasty and great. Now it’s like soup.
fine. You’re going to braise, meaning you cook with pressure, heat, a lot of heat, and fluid. That’s what braising is. You take those ribs that you brown, put them in that fluidy stuff, put the top on, leave it on the stove for 45 minutes at a very high heat. Take it off, and the fluid will cook down by half. You then put it in the oven at like
350 degrees for four to five hours. This is the perfect meal to make on a great football Sunday, right? You start that thing at like noon and it cooks and just fills the house all day with that aroma and you’re watching football and then at like five o’clock cocktail time, maybe started before then. And you do is I also will mash some potatoes, just put little new potatoes, boil them.
Mark Boyer (01:07:00.447)
Yeah.
Mark Boyer (01:07:13.486)
No.
Adam (01:07:21.149)
a little bit of cream, some butter, some Parmesan cheese, stir it real hard. Take a bowl, put the fresh mashed potatoes in the bowl, then reach in, grab one of your braised short ribs, put it on top. At this point, that watery fluid is super thick, like split soup, super thick, because it cooked down. And just ladle that over the top. So mashed potatoes, braised short ribs, the brown sauce. That is delish. Delish. Yeah.
Mark Boyer (01:07:35.426)
That’s good.
Mark Boyer (01:07:47.15)
That sounds amazing. Jason, did you get all that down?
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:07:48.22)
made me hungry. I actually remembered that, absolutely. We need to make that. I’m coming to your house. Yeah, I’m coming to your house. I’ll make it one day. And so go along with that. Favorite restaurant in New York City.
Mark Boyer (01:07:52.514)
All right, I want you to make that. Okay. Thanks, Adam.
Adam (01:08:03.809)
Bilboquet, hands down. Although tonight I think I’m gonna go get some margaritas with my girlfriend, but yeah, Bilboquet, 60th. So free ad for Bilboquet. It’s a really cool French place. They do this thing called Cajun chicken. It’s a chicken breast with kind of a hot sauce on it. And it comes with a salad and fries, so it’s a full meal. It’s like 38 bucks. And get a glass of rose. It’s French.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:08:06.002)
Okay.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:08:10.236)
There you go.
Adam (01:08:33.149)
Everybody’s beautiful. The music’s great. Uh, it’s right there in Midtown. They’ve been such a success. They have one out in sag Harbor now in the Hamptons. Um, they’ve got one in Dallas. I think they’ve got one in Atlanta. Uh, they might even have one in, uh, Las Vegas. I’m not positive. And I’ve heard that they are considering opening one in Dubai. Bilbo K B I L B O Q E T. Um, it was started by a French guy and a buddy of mine.
Mark Boyer (01:08:42.024)
Oh, well.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:08:54.152)
Wow.
Mark Boyer (01:08:55.483)
Wow, good luck!
Adam (01:09:02.161)
uh… was not french uh… he’s swedish he was actually the national champion uh… squash player sweeten back in the day and they started this french restaurant together and uh… and now it’s i mean oh yeah they’ve got one of home beach to bill bouquet it’s awesome
Mark Boyer (01:09:09.602)
No.
Mark Boyer (01:09:19.662)
Bill Bocchini.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:09:20.088)
Well, okay. Don’t, if you’re all listening or watching this, go check it out at those different locations. Support Adam’s friend. It sounds amazing.
Adam (01:09:29.447)
Yeah, I go there once a week. Sometimes, no joke, it’s New York, everybody eats out.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:09:31.336)
I’m going to go ahead and turn it off.
Mark Boyer (01:09:35.575)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:09:35.608)
Exactly. Mark, any other questions for Adam before we let him go enjoy time with his girlfriend?
Mark Boyer (01:09:41.874)
No, I think we covered a lot and I appreciate your time, Adam. So you spend a good amount of time here with us and what a treasure chest of wisdom and thoughts provoking and things. I mean, what I heard was lots of things in regards to stick with what your giftings are. You were fortunate years ago at Princeton that a professor cared enough to tell you the truth.
And it’s good to have people like that in our lives, right? To say, hey, you should be in economics and you adjusted quickly. I mean, it was, I thought maybe that might be because you wanted to be maybe a surgeon or whatever, but then you adjusted quickly, which makes sense because now you do that now. I mean, where you have to adjust like to the point there’s perseverance, you’ve hung in there through your career, but then with people around you,
Adam (01:10:08.886)
Yes.
Mark Boyer (01:10:34.498)
gaining wisdom, asking questions. There’s just comes a time where, you know, you maybe need to persevere longer term. Hey, I gotta make an adjustment here. And you did that, you know, recently and it’s just a lot of good insights. Those are some of the key things that I heard today in regards to moving the chains forward. And I think that’s really good wisdom. What about you, Jason, what’d you hear?
Adam (01:10:48.45)
Oh, thank you.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:10:54.704)
Absolutely, perseverance is key. I think you kind of wrapped it up great, but Adam, I think your story is inspiring. Again, I think a lot of people, especially, so I’m 33, so I’m still, I mean, I think I’m old, but I guess I’m still young on the spectrum. But, you know, I just remember, I just remember, you know, graduating college and.
Mark Boyer (01:11:09.506)
You are not all.
Adam (01:11:11.103)
No.
Mark Boyer (01:11:13.823)
Amen, Adam.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:11:19.224)
I was a sociology major in college. I didn’t know what I wanted to do or who I wanted to be. I know I loved people. I loved serving people. I loved, again, growing up in that restaurants and hotel hospitality type of world, but I really didn’t know what that meant at the time. Again, having people in your life that are gonna push you and utilizing the unique background, the Mad Men background that you had or the background I had or Mark had.
It kind of forms you into who you are and develops that character within you. And then obviously God given talent. I mean, obviously you’re very talented in multiple things besides the pictures behind G’s, which I could draw like that or paint like that. But yeah, I think that’s the thing is like, is you were adaptable, you persevered, but you were adaptable as well. I mean, analyst options trader, oil, futures, equities. I mean, you’ve kind of done it all. So again, I think your story is inspiring.
Mark Boyer (01:12:01.25)
Maltive.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:12:17.464)
And we really appreciate you taking the time. We didn’t have to do that. So, um, Adam, thank you from the bottom of our hearts. We appreciate it.
Adam (01:12:23.737)
Oh, well, thank you. I’m humbled and just I’m so glad that we were able to be together. So thank you.
Mark Boyer (01:12:30.946)
Good time.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:12:31.3)
Absolutely. And we’ll link the Bulls Eye Brief website, your bio, we’ll link that stuff in the episode information there. But Adam, anything else you want to leave the audience with here today? I know you’re an eternal optimist, so give us a good quote or something to take with us as we finish out the week here.
Adam (01:12:51.245)
Keep going. Wherever you’re going, keep going. Never give up. Tomorrow’s gonna be better than today. I know we’ve been talking football, but you know, Wayne Gretzky, don’t skate to where the puck is, skate to where it’s going. Think about where you wanna go, think about who you wanna be, think about the people that matter in your life, prioritize all of that and just keep going.
Mark Boyer (01:12:52.654)
Hahaha, go quit!
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:12:53.331)
I love that!
Mark Boyer (01:12:58.755)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:13:22.256)
That was perfect.
Mark Boyer (01:13:22.497)
That’s good. Well, thanks for helping us move the chains, Adam. Blessing to have you on.
Adam (01:13:25.906)
Oh, love it. Hopefully we move the chains today.
