Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:00.891)
We are back in business baby. Mark and Jason, salt and pepper here. The closing bell, June 7th. How are you feeling Mark?
Mark Boyer (00:11.054)
How am I feeling? I feel fantastic. It’s Friday. No, I’m feeling good, man. I’m good. You know, my body’s breaking down and I can’t hardly walk. But other than that, awesome. Don’t let your kids hear it, people. Don’t let your kids play football. All right, don’t do it. No, I’m joking. I love it. It’s fun, but it’s catching up to me. I will say that.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:15.195)
It is Friday.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:24.123)
Well, you know, over there…
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:30.523)
Yeah.
Uhhhh
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:38.427)
Yeah, well you still look good so, you know. Yep, yep.
Mark Boyer (00:40.75)
thank you. So I think it’s a white bear dude. So it’s the it’s the salt. Preservative.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:47.259)
Well, you know, we had a few weeks off, but it wasn’t because we weren’t busy. There’s some exciting news that we can’t share yet, but hopefully in the next month we can share on this podcast and in the newsletter to our clients what’s been going on. But one thing we can share, right, Mark, is that we have a new employee. So who’s the new mystery employee that we brought on here?
Mark Boyer (01:11.694)
Yeah. So, wow. Okay. Good. This is great. so, so yeah, we got a new employee that we’re adding to, Fred Flintstone. No, I mean, no, we got a guy, one of my, son, my son -in -law JD, who’s, just a brainiac. I mean, he’s, he’s so, sorry, sorry, Jay, but he’s, you know, he’s a, he’s an academic guy. yeah. And it’s kind of part of the,
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:22.555)
Hahaha.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (01:34.267)
Mark guy.
He’s very smart very smart
Mark Boyer (01:42.03)
It’s part of the whole thing of what we’re gonna announce, but good things happen in Boyer Financial. We’re growing and we got some good opportunities coming up. So we got JD McWheely’s coming in to be our compliance officer. So we’re super fired up about that. He has a long history in teaching. He was a teacher back in the day, then COVID kind of changed some things. And then he’s been in hospitality with…
working with Chick -fil -A some, and it’s just been, we’re just, we just think he’s a great fit for kind of this new phase for us is we need it, we need it. We’ve gotten so, we’ve gotten, we’ve grown so much. We need compliance officer making sure you’re not front running people. I gotta keep an eye on you. So anyway, we’re pretty fired up about that. So, and you know what? And God’s been good to us. We’re continuing to grow and we’re excited about in the future.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (02:23.195)
Nice to check.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (02:28.571)
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (02:36.603)
Mm -hmm.
Mark Boyer (02:38.702)
It’s good when you have lots of kids, man. You got lots of potential employees to grab, you know, and we’re a financial, but we’re even looking forward to the future when we’re even expanding outside of family, even though keeping our family business and family oriented business. But yeah, we’re excited to welcome JD. So if you call our office and JD answers the phone, tell him hi and congrats. Yeah. So we’re excited to have him a part of the team.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (02:52.763)
Yep.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (03:05.531)
Well, he’ll definitely be a great addition and asset to Boyer Financial to us and our clients. So we’re excited about it. So welcome JD. And then let’s just dive into it. A few things this week here. So Mark, it’s how Mark, you know, had a resilient week. You know, we had some, some little bit of downward pressure over the last, the last few weeks here, right? Some down, some pretty heavy down days, but.
Obviously, economy’s been resilient. The market’s been resilient this week. Dow Jones up over half a percent. S and P 500 almost one and a half percent and NASDAQ obviously leading the way. The AI craze and semiconductor craze is here to stay. So be it, but up over 2 .4 % this week. And then, so we saw a little bit of some fluctuation right here, Mark, with.
With kind of a rotation in the markets, we had job numbers come out today a little bit hotter than expected for May 272 ,000 jobs added nearly a hundred thousand above the consensus forecast by Bloomberg, which was at 180 ,000. So wage growth up 4 .1 stronger than the 3 .9 anticipated unemployment, take it up to 4%. Which is the highest we’ve seen in some time.
but kind of a mixed bag here. So what are you seeing? What are some key indicators you’re looking at?
Mark Boyer (04:29.998)
I think the consumer, again, it’s kind of like this deal. We feel like this, you know, that COVID, you know, air pump, you know, threw a lot of money into the system. And I think it’s getting close to being over. But I think this is kind of, you know, part of that economy continues to be fairly strong consumer, even though higher debt limits and whatever continue to spend. And so, you know, you get these numbers and they’re not necessarily interesting that the the the
10 year yield has actually been coming down here recently because, you know, anticipating rate cuts and then today happens and it kind of popped up. We’re in the 4 .43 range kind of right now with on the 10 year today kind of got popped up. So we’ve had some rally into the bonds though up until today. And then the stock market, you know, continues to kind of, continues to roll forward. So again, I think going back to the beginning of the year, you know, when you have a year like we did last year where we had a big, you know, big up,
and big momentum, oftentimes that momentum carries into the new year. The question will be as if it can continue. Yes, there was job numbers were good, interesting though, in the bottom, I always notice at the bottom, it’s always like, and by the way, job openings, there was a little something that says, they downgraded the last two months, but nobody’s, they.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (05:42.811)
Thank you.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (05:48.123)
Yep.
Mark Boyer (05:52.494)
Nobody tells you that. So actually, you know, I think it looks strong on the top. It’s kind of funny. Like it feels like, you know, like there’s to me, it’s like it looks all calm. It’s like that water you ever hear about those rivers, you know, like there’s places that Colorado River or whatever, when it’s really rolling, like it looks like really calm. It’s just looks perfect. But then they say underneath the water, there’s there’s things happening that you got to be super careful. You don’t get sucked under.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (06:15.163)
Mm -hmm. Yeah.
Mark Boyer (06:18.734)
I kind of feel like that a little bit. There’s a, there’s a little nervousness to me about like, everything looks great. And it continues to like, but like there’s this, there’s, there’s uncertainty, underneath that nobody sees that there’s a slowdown happening, I think in a lot of areas economically. So we’ll see, you know, where that hands out. So that’s kind of feeling I have. Yeah. It looks, sounds great. Yeah. Blah, blah. And then it’s like, really? I mean, it’s hard to imagine just like living real life. When you go to the store every day and you do all the things it’s like,
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (06:29.307)
Mm -hmm.
Mark Boyer (06:48.302)
Is it really that good? You know, I mean, you know, it’s kind of hard. It’s hard to figure out. And then I think you and I talked about is a lot of its government jobs, too. Again, continually we’re getting government. You know, a lot of this employment is in the government. So which makes total sense with the administration that we have right now is just massive bureaucracy continue to grow it. And then and in the election year, that’s concerning, too, because, you know, that makes it I mean, pump up those jobs. It makes it look better than it is. Right. So.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (06:55.739)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (07:00.251)
it.
Mark Boyer (07:18.254)
I’m not saying that’s happening, but I’m saying that, again, your antennas go up and it’s kind of like, not really sure. So I just, I continue to stay cautious in a way, but being involved, you got to be invested, but you got to just, yeah, make sure you can, if you need liquidity, that you’re well positioned for that.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (07:25.851)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (07:35.771)
Thicken shoes.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (07:41.371)
Absolutely. And those are good points, you know, looking at the job numbers and kind of where we’re at. I mean, even with a stronger jobs report, which obviously is bad news from the feds perspective, because then they’re saying, okay, we’re going to pause again at our next meeting. And that just kind of pushes back the timeframe of actually getting our first rate cut. You know, European central bank actually cut rates this week, first time 25 basis points.
And so, you know, but they’re urging caution moving forward. So they kind of beat us to that punch. And you got to remember they actually had higher inflation to start out with than we did. and then they actually got it under control a lot quicker, for different, obviously there’s different economic factors and, and, levers that were pulled. no, no two countries are the same there, but my point being is, is, is like you said, you know, it looks good on the surface, but you look underneath.
the water, you look underneath the surface, there is some turmoil, three out of four Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and are having financial difficulty. You have spending on credit into, I believe it’s the, the trillions of dollars. There was over 4 trillion, I believe, then growing in consumer debt. so where is that going to come from? How are we going to pay for not only, you know, how are we going to pay for, for the government spending, but also how are we going to get out of this hole?
individually and then also for all of the over 8 million immigrants that have come over the border as well. I mean, that’s just extra government spending to take care of these people as well. So it’s just a lot. There’s just a lot like you said going on. And again, we’ll wade through all of that. These aren’t political statements. It’s just there’s got to be money. There’s got to be some kind of cash flow to fund all of this. So it’s quite interesting.
Mark Boyer (09:34.894)
I’m laughing and crying at the same time watching what’s going on. It’s crazy. There’s not a one, there’s not one of us. Okay. Could it have a kid run our, our homes and our home finances like our government does, but you know, we don’t have a spigot that we can, you know, just print more money and, or, or, you know, make the switch over here to, you know, I don’t know. It’s just, it’s a, it’s really, it’s concerning. And I think that makes this year’s elections huge.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (10:03.771)
Where we’re going.
Mark Boyer (10:03.79)
as far as where the direction of this country is going. So we gotta slow down the size of this government.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (10:11.099)
I think a lot of people are wondering, okay, so Mark and Jason, you’re talking about economy is resilient, yet there are some tensions and rough waters underneath the service, yet the markets are still doing remarkably well given. Where are we going to go from here? April showers, Bratme flowers, markets have placed a greater importance on
economic growth and corporate profits, which have been strong over 10 % earnings growth for the S and P 500. Kind of getting away from that Fed interest rate message that we’ve been talking about the last year and a half or whatever it’s been. So is there anything that we can look at between now and the end of the year? Is there anything in your mind that might stand out? Are we looking at potential further growth? Are we looking at?
Are we going to experience some volatility as we get near election season? What should be in people’s minds moving forward?
Mark Boyer (11:11.246)
I just mentioned earlier, so look, nobody knows for sure. I mean, I could have a best guest and I tell you what, you know this, we get on calls all the time with money managers and people that we know that are really, really smart. I had one like in the last year who, a manager at one of the largest institutions in the world who is just…
pounding on the table that there was going to be at least five or six interest rates, a bond in a fixed income manager is highly regarded. I’m just going to, there’s going to be five or six interest rate cuts here in 2024. Okay. So, you know, and I, you know, Warren Buffett’s famous for saying, nobody knows exactly, right? So, so we’re, yes, we are financial advisors and I got, you know, I, I tips between being, you know,
very optimistic and then there’s things that make me very pessimistic. The key is none of us really knows. It’s like going into a game, you can be prepared, you can prepare for an athletic contest, going against a strong opponent and have watched film and do all these things, right? You have a really good idea of how they play and all their strengths and weaknesses. And then once you get into the game, like he does, I mean, it’s play by play, like he just, you know,
You’re still going to be consistent with that and you know what they’re doing, but you’re going to have to make adjustments. So the key is to have that balance attack. We say this a lot, but you got to, you got to go at this right now, you know, praying for the best, but understanding, you know, that, you know, the worst can happen too. You know, there’s a lot of war going on. There’s lots of things happening. So that’s why, you know, you had elections coming up. You’ve got a lot of, there’s a lot of emotion in the world right now. And, so.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (12:47.355)
Yeah.
Mark Boyer (13:07.854)
All that to say is that stay balanced. That’s what our job is, is to make sure that you’ve got enough short -term cash to handle. If your retirement is in place and you need income on a regular basis, make sure that you’ve got places where you can tap into some cash. There’s good cash right now. I mean, you’re getting still good deals on short -term, right? So all that to say is that that’s why I think it’s really important. A lot of people do it on their own. Some people can do it, but…
I think that’s why I love being about a financial advisor or a coach. I mean, that’s what we do is help people coach them, look at their situation. That’s why we’re here to help and we want to do that because those are important to be prepared for every kind of situation. Right. I mean, that’s what we love about this business. So, yeah, I think elections are going to be a big deal. You know, they’re about ready to throw a former president. You know, there’s a really good chance in my mind that they’re going to
throw them in prison over, you know, some stuff that you can argue is a parking ticket in most cases that, you know, a whole bit. So what’s that going to do? You know, there’s a lot of emotion in the world. Bottom line is though it may or may not affect the stock market or whatever, because a lot of that, to your point earlier, it’s all it’s predicated on earnings and earnings have been surprisingly still strong. So that’s the other side, right? So corporations are still pretty positive on things. So you can’t fight that. You can’t fight the
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (14:29.467)
Yeah.
Mark Boyer (14:35.822)
I mean, what they’re doing and what their earnings per share is really the stuff that we are looking at. So, and so that continues to be strong. So, you know, you don’t fight the Fed, they say, but I think at the end, you know, at the end of the stock, the whole stock market is based long -term on actually earnings in great companies. I mean, you’re in a mix right now with AI and companies like Nvidia. Like this is a, you know, we’ve talked about this so many times. It’s just, it’s a different, it’s a new.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (14:41.435)
Yep. Good point.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (14:54.779)
Yes.
Mark Boyer (15:05.966)
industrial revolution in a way. And so, you know, that coupled with all, you know, you’re just, you’re adding more efficiencies and more money in that place. That’s kind of spreading out to lots of different areas. So there you go. So yes, a lot of bad news, but yet there’s some really credible news too for investors. So yeah, have a, have a well -developed thought through plan. That’s, that’s key right now.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (15:07.931)
Absolutely.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (15:18.363)
Mm -hmm.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (15:23.995)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (15:31.067)
I really liked those points that you brought up and just to kind of go off what you’re talking about, like this new industrial revolution, you know, Taiwan semiconductor, which obviously has been heavily affected with the possibility of China’s military aggression and taking over Taiwan. They’ve a D global de globalizing the supply chain has been happening for the last few years since COVID. So you’ve got TSM Taiwan semi -opening factories in Arizona, though it will take some time to train.
us citizens to kind of do the job that, that TSMC did over in Taiwan, but, but that’s a really good news. The de -globalization of all that. but to prove your.
Mark Boyer (16:09.166)
TSM hit another new high today, right?
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (16:11.195)
Yeah. Do you know why though? Because their profits that came out there, their sales rose 30 % to $7 .1 billion. So there you go. What you’re talking about revenue earning.
Mark Boyer (16:24.174)
There you go. So corporations, somebody’s buying chips, right? Somebody’s, and they’re making chips. So somebody’s buying all these products that are, you know, so that’s, that’s what I’m talking about. You can’t fight that. I mean, that’s not, that’s beyond almost, I mean, it’s, it’s a consumer, but it’s even, it’s deep into the corporations of consumers. It’s a long -term, it’s really long -term stuff that’s happening here. You know, six months ago, you know, you and I talking about Taiwan Semiconductor, you know, like,
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (16:43.803)
Yes.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (16:49.435)
Yeah, this could be the
Mark Boyer (16:51.406)
Well, they’re going to get attacked by China. You know, China is going to attack Taiwan, you know, and you’re talking to clients and there’s that concern. tight. And yet, you know, she’s well, I mean, it’s just gone from, you know, 100 to 164. So we’re up to 64 % in the last year since December. I mean, pretty good return. I mean, so again, you don’t know. I mean, that’s why that’s why great companies diversification, all that really important part of the game plan. So, wow.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (17:08.091)
Yeah. Yep. Exactly.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (17:20.507)
So just to end here, a couple of facts. So, you know, from, you know, Memorial day to labor day, we’ll, we’ll look at, you know, between those two holidays, the S and P 500 rises about 1 .8 % on average between those holidays with gains 70 % of the time. and then, you know, stocks tend to do better the rest of the year as well. If they rise in May with an average June to December gain of 5 .4 % with positive returns, 73 % of the time.
And again, that’s a bespoke is the source. So, you know, seasonality isn’t particularly worrisome. It’s the election. It’s polo geopolitical uncertainty. We could see oil, price surge, depending on, you know, what goes on in the middle East, but all this, like you said, it goes back to your beautiful point of diversification, you know, pick your spots, have a well thought out plan. That’s what it comes down to at the end of the day. There’s always something going on out there, right?
Mark Boyer (18:18.958)
Yeah, and we talked about it again, and there’s other diversification. We talked about the correlation right now, the stock market and the bond market. That’s why we’ve been adding lots of alternatives, other things that are less correlated to those two stocks and bonds. Really important again in a balance to make sure you got uncorrelated investments. And that’s what we’re trying to work through to with our clients. So yeah, it’s a great time, always a great time to be alive.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (18:26.907)
Yep.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (18:45.563)
Yeah.
Mark Boyer (18:46.126)
It’s fun to see it keeps you keeps you on your knees praying and and also take time. You know, it’s it’s it’s you know, it’s nice to make money if you’re invested in, you know, especially in the markets right now. Ask anybody who owns Nvidia, right? Or those types of things. But our game stuff. Yeah, growing kiddie, right? So that’s what makes me nervous, dude, when those guys start popping up and they.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (19:02.765)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (19:07.963)
Yeah, roaring kitty. Exactly. Down big today.
Mark Boyer (19:15.822)
mean thing, I’m like, boy, here it is. But but it’s isolated some of those stocks.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (19:21.691)
It’s a craze. And again, that’s a company that like you said, I’m the meme stock. This guy made hundreds of millions of dollars on this to try to stick it to the big wall street guy. And now, you know, there’s could be manipulation on the other side. There could be some regulatory oversight because he’s such a big market mover now, because he’s got over $120 million in call options at $20 a share. That is the exercise price. So, you know, he exercises that that’s a big market movement right there in itself. So is there, is there going to be.
Mark Boyer (19:42.062)
Hmm.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (19:51.259)
oversight or they’re going to be brokers as brokerage firms that kind of shut them out. Get all that to be seen. But again, earnings, earnings, earnings will drive long -term stock price. Game stops earnings came out early. They actually released them early because of all this stuff. They were, the sales were down 29%. So, you know, not the greatest, you know, financials when looking at GameStop, could they bounce back? Absolutely. Whole nother conversation, but stick to stick to the, the companies that have growing.
Mark Boyer (20:14.254)
Yeah, yeah. That’s the one.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (20:20.123)
inconsistent revenue streams, grow their dividends, pay back their shareholders, invest in innovation and growth. Again, these are all, there’s plenty of names out there to not get caught up in crazes, but you know, even, you know, you can, you can make money in Vegas. If you go put money on, on black and craps or whatever roulette. yeah, and I, I don’t do that, but yeah, I don’t even know the right name of the game, but it’s.
Mark Boyer (20:28.846)
Mm -hmm.
Mark Boyer (20:41.07)
I don’t either. Yeah. And this isn’t that. Yeah. Meme stocks are, I think that’s a gambling. And there’s some stocks right now that are, you know, I think a lot of people are manipulating gaming. But the reality is, is, you know, you’re if you’re investing good companies that have earnings, like you said, I mean, you’re actually a stock owner at that point or or or you’re a borrower or you’re a loner through bonds. So it’s, you know, it’s, you know, again.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (20:48.667)
Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (20:59.195)
Hmm.
Mark Boyer (21:08.366)
doing both of those. You don’t have to, you don’t have to be super aggressive to participate in this. It’s yeah, I still, we’re still high on bonds too. I think bonds fit. You don’t want to forget. I mean, it’s been kind of a back to my point about the guy that, you know, he, he wasn’t right about him. He’s, he’s an unbelievable long, it wasn’t now all the bond managers, a lot of them have had that kind of reassess and where we’re going now. So yeah, you can’t, it’s all good, man. It’s, it’s all good. Just stay in the game.
but be diversified, that’s key.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (21:40.283)
Good. All right, guys, we’ll see you next week on the closing bell. Thanks for joining us.
