Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:01.214)
It is December, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to this edition of The Closing Bell. I’m Jason Jacobi along with, of course, the better looking cohost, Mark Boyer. Mark, how are you?
Mark Boyer (00:12.214)
I’m doing great. Thanks, Jason. Your hair’s looking good. Nice and peppery. Nice salty salt and pepper, right? It’s fun. And we’re into December. I’m thinking about food all the time. Cause it’s a, if we just had Thanksgiving, now you got, now you got Christmas coming in. It’s awesome. Time of the year. It’s colder.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:16.738)
Hahaha!
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:20.546)
Bring in the flavor.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:32.034)
Absolutely. I know it’s my favorite month of the year. It love Christmas, especially with kids brings out the inner kid within me. I don’t know about you, but, uh, definitely looking forward to it. So, you know, with, with salt and pepper, we look to bring some spice and some savoriness. That’s even a word to your financial lives. Super fun to do this. Uh, we got a good one for you this week. We’ll talk markets. We’ll talk the latest inflation report.
Mark Boyer (00:40.534)
I love it.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (00:59.214)
and finishing up and wrapping up quarter three earning season, which should pretty much be done now. So why don’t we get into it? First thing we want to talk about today is the personal consumption expenditure report, which came out this week. We’ll kind of work our way through to what that means to the Fed, what that means into the markets. And that’s kind of the flow and the journey that we’ll take today. But the latest PCE numbers on a year over year basis,
Some good news. So we’ve been talking about cooling inflation. Headline PCE, which includes volatile food and energy prices came in at 3%, down from 3.4% the previous month. And a core year over year PCE came in at 3.5%, which was down 20 basis points from September. So Mark, we’re seeing cooling inflation, which is what we wanted to see.
Obviously inflation kind of re reared its head, not much, but in the summer months, obviously with travel and consumer spending, um, fund inflation, we call that spending on services, uh, while goods lagged in contractionary territory. So what are your thoughts here? Moving into quarter, uh, quarter four here and we’re on December’s doorstep. We’re actually in the entryway now. Today’s December 1st. What’s going on with that?
Mark Boyer (02:19.114)
Yeah. Well, I mean, I think the numbers are coming in. Uh, you know, the market is seeing a soft landing in the horizon. That’s what’s, that’s what’s happened. And we show in here, then our chart. Let’s jump to the chart here. You can actually see in the S and P 500, uh, ever since numbers started coming in, you know, that, that inflation was waning. We’ve, you know, we’ve had a real run in the market. Um, so, you know, we talked about this a couple of months ago that the fourth quarter of this time of year was usually you get a Santa Claus rally.
October is normally the bear killer. A lot of people are concerned in October because we’ve had some big drops in the market in October. This one was no exception. You can actually see here that in October, the market actually had a third wave down. This was a high back in the summer, July of this year. And then we had a wave down, one wave down, a second one, and then a third one that hit a low. And so…
When these inflation numbers started waning and it sounded like the Fed was beginning to say, hey, we may be less aggressive and so forth, we see that we hit that low in late October and that was the bear killer and now we’ve had a big run up. So the markets are anticipating a pause in interest rates, which we’ve had. And even now it looks like we might be, there’s even talk of cuts as early as May.
So we’ll see, you know, we’ll see what’s happening, but the market’s definitely anticipating that and pricing those numbers in now. So that’s good.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (03:51.31)
Yeah, Jay Powell came out today and was talking about just exactly what you said. They said that they are cautiously optimistic that they’re going to continue to pause. They think that the inflation will continue to recede a little bit more and then they’ll be very patient in lowering rates. So
You know, markets pricing and like you said, mid next year, mid 2024 for a first, maybe 25 basis point rate cut. And again, this is early projections here where we’re not, uh, you know, um, which is a wizard with a crystal ball here. We’re just, we’re just talking, you know, what the market’s pricing and right now coming off those, uh, those late October lows that you showed, right Mark, right there.
Mark Boyer (04:38.602)
Yeah, so yeah, we’ve had this low here. You see it in the charts where, you know, back in October, we had that low, kind of had a flush out. You can see that in those times we had some decent volume on the bottom here. You can see the volume. And as we get that, you know, the markets have been rallying back up. I think a lot of it has to do with if you show a chart here, the interest rates have been kind of the key. This is a this is a chart of the 10 year and 10 year yield.
And you see that this is going back to last October, a year ago. Rates were down and then inflation started hitting and the bond market really started to, rates started going up. And this was the kind of the hit to the bond market this last year. And here in October, that same period of time, the 10-year actually hit at a high of
you know, for almost 5%. I mean, everybody’s talking about the 10 year here in 5%. Uh, it did hit that and, uh, and actually spent a couple of days there, a few days up and then slowly again, as, as we’ve seen here, the market started to, you know, really sell, uh, the interest rates started to come down and it’s no, you know, no coincidence at the same time as interest rates for coming down that stocks begin to really accelerate again. So, um,
You know, yeah. So I mean, I think that’s a big key is, is that, is that interest rates are in view? Um, you know, the concern when you have higher interest rates, it’s cost more for everything. Mortgages, you know, everything costs more in borrowing. And when the interest rates are high like that, and this is, they come start coming down, you know, the thought is, you know, that let loosens up the market a little, you know, the, you know, people’s ability to borrow and in the economy a little bit, but that’s, you know, that’s all kind of what the fed was hoping that would happen. You know,
Time will tell whether they’ve accomplished it, but right now the bond market’s acting pretty well and favorable for both, for stocks for sure. And also what’s nice about this, if you’ve been in bonds, interest rates come down. The inverted relationship between bonds and interest rates, as interest rates come down, the value of bonds goes up. So if you’re holding on to some longer duration bonds, you’re actually getting, again, some appreciation in those as well. So you’re getting the…
Mark Boyer (07:00.034)
higher interest rate and the appreciation. That’s a huge deal. And why finally, you know, maybe that, but yeah, total return on the fixed income side. So yeah, it’s good. It’s a positive thing. We’ll see, you know, right now that’s, that’s what’s happening in the markets and we’ll see what happens next year. You know, we could be, we could see pauses soon, or frankly, I mean, I kind of lean towards, yeah, that might happen, but at the same time, I think we just, we may stay here for longer.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (07:04.614)
return.
Mark Boyer (07:30.535)
And whether we get cuts or not, I don’t know, but we’re definitely gonna, I think the other chance is we stay higher for longer into 2024 before we get cuts into next year. So anyway, we’ll see what happens, time will tell.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (07:47.53)
Interesting points and also, you know, playing off of, of consumer sentiment, um, investor sentiment in general, thinking about, you know, Oh, soft landing or are we going to have a recession? Again, we’re not in the business of telling the future. We can look at data. We can look at numbers and make a, um, an educated guess. Um, and so, you know, all the people, all the, the big fund managers, the, and analysts that we work with and talk with.
Um, still think that a mild recession is on the cards. And again, that shouldn’t scare anybody in terms of, you know, we always go back to the worst memories, right? Those are the, always the ones that are printed on our brains, you know, 2008, the great recession, uh, and then even COVID, I mean, that was again, unprecedented times with lockdowns and the market, uh, quickly fell to, you know, 35% down within, within what seemed like an instant, right? So I think what consumers and investors need to remember.
Um, and citizens of our great country is that, Hey, you know, economic slowdowns, economic slowdowns are okay. And they’re part of the market cycle. Um, we’ve had extreme inflation. Uh, the fed has raised rates at a historic pace. And like you just said, rates higher for longer will probably be in effect. Uh, I was just reading an article this morning that, uh, you know, one of our top, um, managers that we work with.
They think rates will settle between three to 6%. So, uh, on the mortgage side, I believe they’re talking about. So again, if we can get back to some equilibrium and realize that this slow down, it could end in a soft landing, which is fantastic because we’ve had a resilient economy and consumers been strong labor markets, still strong, though continuing claims this week did come in above 2 million, um,
continuing jobless claims. So we’re actually right there at like 1.978 or 1.98. So we’re sitting right there at that psychological level of about 2 million, which again is showing signs of a slowing economy. But it’s been resilient. We’ve talked about this, Mark. And I think that as we move forward, worrying about recession or soft landing is really doing it an injustice.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (10:05.83)
that we need to just focus on again, our long-term goals, look for opportunity in the markets, positioning. You talked about the bond market. There was a method to our madness. People are like, why, you know, long-term investors are, we’re asking, why aren’t we holding long-term bonds right now? This is why we position in a barbell, in a barbell philosophy, I guess you could say right now, taking advantage of short-term, but extending duration and increasing quality.
in our bonds and our bond portfolios because of the fact that total return that you just talked about. So sorry for my rant, but I thought that was very important to put it in perspective that things might be slowing down, but the markets react positively because there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, whether it’s a mild recession or a soft landing.
Mark Boyer (10:59.23)
Yeah, you’re exactly right. I mean, that’s all those things are true. We don’t know what tomorrow holds. And we just don’t. We’re making, everybody’s making their best guess. But the key is, I think, because we don’t know is that, you know, we’ve said this many times, stay diversified, you know, have your money in different places and, you know, look for those opportunities as the market changes, you know, to make, you know, to make.
specific moves perhaps in a more active portfolio. But I wanted to show a couple of things. One is this is the bond market. I just used the Vanguard total bond mark. You can see here, again, I showed that last interesting as bonds come down. This is the point in regards to interest rates coming down. We see that bonds, this is a basket of bonds, just one that you can look at. There’s so many ETFs you can look at, but you can see that it bottomed out here.
And then the 68 range again back to coincidentally late October that and then November started and you can see that the bond market or the price of bonds really has begun to move up. In fact, in this case, right to its 200 day moving average. So you know, there’s lots of charts that show that actually that the bond markets are actually kind of at a pivotal point. They’ve moved back up to the 200 day. If it breaks that to the upside, that’s positive. We can see lower rates from there.
And so it’s interesting, you know, again, back to the longer term. That’s why, that’s why you want to, you know, have that barbell, barbell kind of duration in your, in your bond portfolio, because you’re getting that appreciation. The other place that’s interesting is, um, uh, I just want to look at it, headed up earlier, but, uh, let me go back to that is the, the dollar. This is another area that has interest rates were high. The dollar was strong. And now you can see since October, again, the same thing, the dollar has actually dropped in here.
Um, you know that, uh, you know, it’s not down to its lows that were, you know, back earlier this year, but this, this helps, um, this helps the multi-nation, you know, as the dollar drops, okay. That helps anybody who does business and other currencies, uh, you know, so your multinational companies, different, uh, you know, anybody, if you buy international stocks, it’s all beneficial to us in those investments too, as the dollar drops in here too. So anyway, you’ve had that combination of interest rates coming down. The.
Mark Boyer (13:25.074)
you know, the value of the dollar coming down that gives us, you know, that it just sort of opens up opportunities for other places. And so again, diversification key. And we’ve been, we were talking about the international stocks in here and making sure as it, you know, in those times where it’s extreme to either side, you want to start adding into those areas. And so I think that’s, you know, again, back to the point is that you don’t never know, but you never know everything, but you know, there’s opportunities that you find that, you know, you got to take advantage of.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (13:54.594)
Absolutely. So let’s talk, you know, wrapping up quarter three earnings for the S&P 500. We’re pretty much done here. So I want to give some updated, you know, preliminary numbers before audits. So, you know, if you’re looking at the S&P 500 as a whole, it’s actually done pretty well in terms of, of earnings per share. It’s on track for 6% year over year increase, which is, which is relatively pretty darn good.
But that actually exceeds 10% when you exclude the energy sector, which has kind of been a laggard last quarter. Obviously with the Russian-Ukraine war and geopolitical tensions, kind of not subsiding, but it’s kind of started to take a little bit of a backseat. That was kind of the big thing. And economies have started to adjust. It’s actually hurt their bottom lines a little bit in the energy sector.
Um, we’ve started to see price per barrel start coming down as well right now, again, with escalating Israel Hamas war and will Iran join in and, uh, OPEC’s meeting, uh, they just postponed it, but they’re talking about further cuts to, um, to output, which, uh, obviously we’ll, we’ll jack up prices a little bit more and, uh, obviously, you know, higher costs per barrel could, uh, could pad the bottom lines in future quarters for energy. So.
Still a good sector to be in, but quite interesting. But just to wrap up quarter three before we kind of specifically get to your chart here, Mark, about the US oil fund. Yeah.
Mark Boyer (15:28.022)
Yeah, this shows what you’re talking about, is that oil has come down in here. And so that’s, you know, it’s holding around that 70, you know, bucks a barrel trying to, but we’ll see if that holds. But that, you know, that’s showing what’s happened here in the recent months too. Yeah.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (15:42.234)
Good point. That’s great. And then for, for our listeners, um, we do have a chart up here that, you know, we do have a, uh, video version, visual version here that you can find on YouTube. Um, just, you know, type in Boyer financial services. Our videos will pop up. We do a lot of great different content. Uh, we have a different move the chains podcast, which if you haven’t listened to encourage you to think about that as more thematic, uh, kind of more inspirational. We’d sit down with top leaders, investment professionals.
and entrepreneurs just talking about their stories and basically, you know, the professionals in their specific areas. So it’s always good to hear different insight from different people. So go ahead and subscribe to that page. You can watch us, you know, as good looking individuals as we are, but just more specifically for the educational content. But anyway, so we’re better on radio. We sound better on radio.
Mark Boyer (16:31.847)
Speak for yourself.
Mark Boyer (16:36.531)
I do better on radio.
I’m Vader on radio.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (16:43.955)
But again, so if you look at the top performing sectors in terms of earnings, consumer discretionary, again, services, fundflation, I love that word. I love keep saying fundflation. Financial fund, fundflation.
Mark Boyer (16:58.222)
Funflation?
Funflation, I get. All right. Go give me an example. What’s funflation? Why is it fun and why is it funflation?
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (17:04.148)
I’m doing fun things.
For example, since you’re such a big Taylor Swift fan, tickets for like a thousand bucks, I think, and people would just clamor for them. So that just means like people that are spending money on experiences post COVID are willing to pay a really pretty penny for it. So it’s like fund-flation, so it jacks up prices. But financials and technology also drove an average quarter through entering surprise of 7.7%. So again, earnings have been resilient.
Mark Boyer (17:12.219)
Oh yeah, I loved, yeah, me too.
Mark Boyer (17:24.688)
Mm, gotcha.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (17:37.178)
If you strip out the S&P 500 of those specific sectors, you actually get a little bit of like kind of a contractionary earnings per share, about like 2% or so. But it’s really interesting to look at just the overarching theme of the S&P 500. So let’s dive into markets. We’ve got some really good info for you here as we kind of move on. Obviously, the magnificent seven. Mark, I want to talk about that.
Before we do so, give a quick brief rundown on the markets, how they’ve done this week. One week Dow Jones, best performer. It’s been a while since we’ve said that. Of the three major indexes, of course, actually. 2.42% for the week. S&P was up about 75 basis points, NASDAQ of about 38 basis points. Russell 2000 was actually the best performer. So small caps have started.
to rally again. It’s good to see though they are still down based off of the past 12 months. In arrears still down over one and a half percent, but up in the leader for the week at almost 3%. So Magnificent 7, crazy, crazy returns, basically doubled, have basically doubled in value this year. Outperforming the S&P which is up 19.6% for the year. So let’s talk a little bit about that.
Let’s talk about S&P 500. If you could pull that chart up there, Mark, S&P, just want your thoughts. So obviously the amount of total return that these Magnificent 7 account for in S&P is quite substantial. And obviously that’s part of the reason why we’ve seen such a big rally. So can you speak to that at all? What are we seeing?
Mark Boyer (19:07.778)
Let’s compete. All right.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (19:30.69)
What’s the reason behind such a big rally in the magnificent set?
Mark Boyer (19:34.446)
Well, I mean, we’re talking about AI, a lot, a big part of it, right? I mean, everybody’s talking about artificial intelligence and what that means for the future. Um, every, everywhere you turned, it’s just the new technology. That’s the biggest thing, you know, it’s, it’s sort of a new era in technology and really it’s, and it’s, uh, anybody that’s involved in that is, um, you know, it’s just super positive. The Nvidia’s of the world, the Microsoft’s.
Everything is connected to AI somehow. So those numbers look good. I mean, you had Nvidia recently just had blowout earnings. I mean, they said blowout earnings, right? So here’s the Nvidia stock, and it’s been probably the top performer this year. If you look, this is a weekly chart. So this is back in January.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (20:15.066)
2 billion revenue surprise on the upside.
Mark Boyer (20:30.146)
The stock was at 148 and today it’s, you know, it just closed today at 467. Right. So it’s one of them. Microsoft’s another one that has just exploded this year, especially in recent, you know, days since their last, um, you know, uh, earnings report, Microsoft popped up again, going back to January. Uh, you know, it’s a, it’s a $239 stock, 240 and today it’s, you know, 374.
So you see these moves. I mean, look, I just showed you the S&P. Look at this move since earnings came out in Leda in kind of that same time that the whole market, Microsoft has really moved a lot. It’s pulling back a little bit, which it needs to in a healthy way, but you just got Apple, all these, what they call Mag-7s are connected somehow to the AI and it’s kind of been, it’s been super popular. So the multiples are…
you know, are high. I mean, you know, they’re expensive stocks you’re buying right now. You know, they’re just in the multiples are just, you know, it’s, you know, Microsoft’s got a P ratio of 36 right now, you know, with a growth rate of, you know, 27%. So, I mean, it’s, it’s got great growth, but, you know, the question is, you know, how, you know, what do they continue to Google app or do they maybe stay sideways here for a while? So the magset, you know, mag seven is important. And part of the reason the S and P 500
You see it there, which, you know, the S&P 500, you think about them being 500 equally weighted stocks, but that’s not the case. Actually, you know, the Apples, the Microsofts, the NVIDIAs, they actually have a higher percentage of the S&P 500. So that’s what you’re seeing here. You’re seeing, you know, those stocks even, you know, those percentage higher, even though it’s not equally weighted. There’s a way though, we always look at, you and I talk about the equal weighted.
S&P. So here’s a RSP is a good thing to look at. So this is the this is the S&P 500 equal weight. In other words, what the what the market with all the other 500 comp, you know, the other companies inside of it, equally weighted, you can see that we’re not near new highs at that. But the good thing is, as you see this chart, as it’s moving up, we’re really starting to get, you know, the
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (22:48.526)
breadth. Yeah.
Mark Boyer (22:50.73)
of all the S&P 500s coming up. And that’s a really positive thing. Another way to look at that, you know, is on the NASDAQ. You know, the NASDAQ is really, you know, when you get the numbers, NASDAQ’s up significantly, right, this year. And here.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (23:06.754)
this year. Yup, yeah, it’s up 36.67 year to date.
Mark Boyer (23:12.366)
Okay, so this is showing again and that’s going back to January. You see this bottom in here, right? That was the Nasdaq after a really rough year. We did in, you know, 2022. You know, here’s the Nasdaq and you can see that, you know, recently we had highs back in July, which right now if you roll a chart across, you know, here, you can see that high. We’re right back at those highs in July. We’ll be testing those right now. But again, the Nasdaq is,
um, you know, is one way if you go to the QQQ, which is another thing on the, uh, that, you know, heavily on the NAS that you see actually in this case, it’s actually broken through. Um, you know, this is a higher concentrated of the mag seven that you’re, that you were talking about, right? I mean, that’s, uh, that shows that the mag seven have really thrown the QQQ into a higher place. But again, if I go to, um, an equal weighted
situation where you’re actually looking at the NASDAQ from an equal weighted position, the QQEW, you see that, again, good’s good. The NASDAQ’s done well and we’re finally getting some broadening too in the NASDAQ as well. So what’s that’s been really positive where you really see that, okay, really see that is in the S&P 500, which you mentioned earlier.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (24:20.046)
resistance.
Mark Boyer (24:35.866)
We really need that S&P or the Russell 2000, excuse me, the Russell 2000, which is their smaller companies. And that’s really the bread and butter of the overall economy. That’s really taken a hit this year. And like you mentioned earlier, but good news is we’re even starting to get the Russell’s trying to break out today was significant day. This first day of September, we’re up almost 3% on the…
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (25:04.182)
Russell, yeah. 2.9.
Mark Boyer (25:04.978)
or yesterday, up on a pretty good amount today, significantly. So we’re starting to break out. It’s really nice. And that’s a positive. We really need the small caps to be a part of this. And again, reason why that happens is interest rates have come down. And the anticipation is they’ll stay down. That helps the smaller companies, which is really, again, it’s easier. So that’s important. Plus the financials, you know, they’re starting to really, you know,
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (25:25.79)
Easier to borrow money.
Mark Boyer (25:34.326)
rally again in here too. So all lower interest rates are good for everybody. And that’s good for economies. And that’s what’s happening here.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (25:44.346)
Oh, around the cycle we go, but yes, very, very interesting. Yeah. Russell 2000 up almost 3% today. Good to see again, still down for the past trailing 12 months, but, um, obviously a great rally here to end the year. Will it continue? That has to be seen, but, but coming out of, you know, um, you know, sl- economic slowdowns, small caps tend to be, uh, you know, one of the first sectors or not sectors, but you know, market capitalizations.
to recover, they kind of lead the way, like you said, because of lower interest rates, easier to do business, kind of more pro growth policy, which obviously benefits the smaller companies because they’re able to grow if they want to. So what’s interesting about the Mag 7 though, so I was doing some research and looking at it. The Mag 7, basically their returns account for two thirds of the broad equity markets returns.
over 75% of the Russell 1000 gains. So just think about that. So like you said, AI, tech, cloud services, again, even we’ve started to see some semiconductor activity in terms of the Intels, which is decent buy right now, where we’re at in terms of valuations, something that I’m watching personally, but you’re starting to get some more broader market participation where semiconductors kind of started to take a little bit of a
Mark Boyer (26:46.702)
Mmm.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (27:12.514)
a slumber after the run-up we saw in the last year. But yeah, it’s just very interesting to see. But with artificial intelligence, this kind of being, you know, internet 3.0 per se, it could be an interesting ride. Again, not saying that it’s going to go straight down or straight up, or I’m not giving a prediction on performance, but it’s, you know, with this being seen, can revenues…
and earnings per share growth still continue to climb at the rates that they are. That is to be seen because it’s been quite incredible. He said Nvidia two billion on the upside in terms of revenue surprise this past quarter, which is astounding. Two billion dollars.
Mark Boyer (27:55.05)
a lot. That’s a big chunk of change. I mean, they’re making, they’re doing some serious business. So, yeah. So, I mean, yeah, all said, all good. Here’s a chart of the, you know, the Russell 2000 ETF just again, showing the positive things here. Again, overall, breath is good now in the markets. A lot of this is we’re breaking some key resistance levels. Again, in this case, you know, that, that
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (27:57.346)
big change.
Mark Boyer (28:22.894)
200 day moving average, which is this dark line here. Um, that’s, you know, that’s usually either when you come down, you find support at it and if it breaks, it’s good, you know, not good, then it starts to really roll over, but also popping up above it, um, traditionally in the, you know, anytime you pop above it coming off, you know, going back over here, you can see when it popped above it, you had a nice little run. Um, so anyway, today, and again, this week we’ve popped above it on the, uh, Russell, which I think just.
reiterates the kind of the broadening of the overall market. So good news is right now we have we have stocks and bonds both going in the right direction and even gold. I was looking at the gold market was interesting today. You know, here’s gold. This is a spider gold shares. This is interesting for those who you know, I’m not a gold. I don’t you know, I don’t know for the gold bugs in the commercials. I see all the time, you know, but.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (29:21.114)
Yeah.
Mark Boyer (29:21.238)
But the reality is you can buy gold through an ETF and that tracks the gold price. And in this case, you can see here that today was a significant day. Again, going back to these time places over here, if you look here and draw a line across, it actually, you know, you can see we kind of broke out today. I mean, or at least right at that level of a potential breakout on gold, too. So lots of positive things to look at in regards to the markets at the moment.
So December should be, you know, should, you know, tendency when you get above these moving now, you tend to stay there. I would love to see a period of time where actually the market goes sideways, even slightly down in here to, to take some breath and maybe set us up for, you know, beginning 2024, see what happens there. But uh,
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (30:04.122)
Take some breath. Yep.
Mark Boyer (30:13.962)
Again, you talk about the economy and things like that. You know, I think, you know, fundflation, all those things, you know, have been a part of 2023. The question is, is when we get into 2024 and we get through Christmas and this, you know, is that unemployment number, which is up now, is it really going to start? Like, are people spending money now doing those fun things, again, coming out of COVID for a couple of years ago now? And, you know, then 2024 is like, hey, we’re going to get our…
You know, we got to, we got to rein it in a little bit and start to, um, you know, save some money and, you know, we got school loans, all these things that are out there. So it’s going to be interesting to see into 2024 if we truly do get that, uh, in those inflationary numbers, you know, um, uh, you know, or if we, if in 2024, we start to get those, you know, the things that we were expecting, uh, in, in a recession to start happening, uh, we get a slight recession in here.
You know, we’ll see. I don’t know. It’s anyone’s guess at the moment.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (31:16.706)
Yeah. And I think next week we’ll do a 20, 24 outlook. We’ll do it a little bit earlier. Um, obviously do our research and, uh, our next closing bell, maybe we’ll, uh, we’ll kind of do a 20, 24 outlook edition. Um, and, uh, and kind of talk about what to expect during a presidential election year, which is always fun. You know, it’s always volatile, but patient, patient investors usually win the day on those election years and, uh, can pick up some, uh, opportunity zones to invest in. So.
Interesting point about gold though. I mean, you look at gold today, you said broke out. Last thought I wanted to drop in here was, you know, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ended today. So kind of interesting people piling into gold. Obviously, the doomsdayers are people that want, you know, risk off assets, kind of piling into gold. So kind of an interesting observation. Is it true? Don’t know.
Mark Boyer (32:12.406)
Yeah
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (32:12.594)
And it’s an interesting observation with what’s going on in the geopolitical world, which gold usually has a large part to play in that. So.
Mark Boyer (32:20.206)
So here’s a weekly chart of the gold. Again, the ETF tracking the gold price, you see this. This is what, you know, this is this week. So each one of these is a, each of these lines is a week now. So this shows that this week, and mostly today on Friday, that the market really, you know, popped up, which, you know, is above some levels here. You know, we’ve been here before back in August.
August of 2020, this is going back to 2020. So we’re getting closer to those highs of 2020 that are interesting. Now I’m looking at a monthly chart. Yeah, so it’s the same going back to 2011 actually. We can even see it was higher up here before. Again, this is an ETF, so it’s not, that tracks gold prices, but interesting. It’s interesting to watch, see what that means for us going forward too.
Jason Jacobi, CFP® (33:13.27)
Absolutely. All right. Well, that’s it for this week’s edition of the closing bell. It’s good to be here with you. If you have any questions, call, text, email, again, compliant texting, of course, but we’re always here for you. For Mark and Jason, we’ll see you next week.
